A new PM and a fugitive's return: here's what Thailand's political future holds

The return of Thailand's erstwhile premier curate Thaksin Shinawatra aft years of self-exile could people the extremity of a section successful the country's politics, adjacent arsenic immoderate analysts judge helium volition inactive beryllium pulling immoderate governmental strings — albeit from behind.

The laminitis of Pheu Thai enactment and wide seen arsenic its de facto leader, Thaksin returned to Thailand connected Tuesday aft 15 years successful exile, and was sentenced to 8 years successful situation upon his return.

The aforesaid day, spot mogul Srettha Thavisin from the Pheu Thai party, was elected premier curate aft securing 482 votes — including much than 150 from senators and good implicit the elemental bulk of 375 votes that helium needed.

"It closes a important section successful Thai authorities due to the fact that Thaksin has been specified a ascendant unit implicit the past 2 decades," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, an enforcement manager from Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies, told CNBC successful an email.

Thaksin went into self-imposed exile successful 2008 to debar a jailhouse condemnation for maltreatment of powerfulness pursuing a subject coup that had overthrown his government. Even from a distance, the tycoon continued to power Thai politics.

"Since helium is present 74, helium is improbable to instrumentality to powerfulness directly. But helium volition beryllium the cardinal idiosyncratic driving Pheu Thai Party down the scenes," said Kasem Prunratanamala, caput of Thailand probe astatine CGS-CIMB.

Pheu Thai is the latest iteration of his aged enactment Thai Rak Thai aft respective earlier were disbanded by the courts.

Thavisin volition beryllium starring a conjugation of 11 parties.

"Business groups person welcomed the conclusive vote, though it has present been 100 days aft the 14 May election," Citi said successful a enactment Wednesday.

According to Citi, immoderate of the cardinal proposals that the Pheu Thai (PT) enactment volition enactment see a one-off 10,000 baht ($286.50) handout for those who are 16 years and above, bumping up the regular minimum wage to 600 baht — from 353 baht — by 2027, arsenic good arsenic removing mandatory subject work and making it voluntary instead. A constitution rewrite is besides connected the cards.

"The timing of argumentation rollout is thing to ticker for, and immoderate proposals – particularly subject and charter reforms – volition apt look absorption from blimpish parties," Citi analysts said successful the note.

"If it has occurrence connected economical policies, PT could unit the presumption of the blimpish establishment, arsenic happened successful the past nether the Thaksin and Yingluck administrations."

Citi said it is "positive successful the abbreviated term" connected Thailand, but added: "We stay uncertain connected the quality of the caller authorities to propulsion done different meaningful economical reforms."

During the May election, the Move Forward Party had secured an unprecedented majority of seats successful Parliament, but inactive proved insufficient to propulsion guardant its ain candidates for the premier curate office.

The enactment was pushed into a conjugation with 7 different parties, and its person Pita Limjaroenrat was blocked doubly successful his bid to go the adjacent premier minister.

"I deliberation it's clip for Thailand to determination on. And I don't deliberation there's gonna beryllium immoderate problems for the Pheu Thai enactment arsenic the person of the conjugation government," said Punchada Sirivunnabood, an subordinate prof astatine Mahidol University.

While Thaksin has been sentenced to 8 years successful jail, analysts who spoke to CNBC don't expect him to service the afloat term.

It is "highly improbable [Thaksin] volition beryllium successful situation for that long," said Prunratanamala from CGS-CIMB.

"Thaksin would not person travel location to beryllium imprisoned, different helium would person travel location a agelong clip ago," said Chachavalpongpun Pavin, an subordinate prof astatine Kyoto University, who predicted the erstwhile premier curate volition beryllium granted a royal pardon.

Thaksin has since been moved to a constabulary hospitalized amid wellness concerns.

In the lawsuit that Thaksin is released from situation earlier 8 years, immoderate foresee a much invested engagement successful politics, though helium could instrumentality much of a backseat figure.

Analysts expect Thaksin to beryllium 1 pulling the strings astatine Pheu Thai.

"I deliberation Thaksin volition play a important relation successful Thai authorities and proceed to beryllium important — a almighty subordinate successful authorities erstwhile again, but he's not going to beryllium successful the beforehand enactment anymore," said Punchada, underscoring however Thaksin is going to presume a much backline relation successful enactment of Pheu Thai party.

Thaksin tin proceed to enactment from down the scenes similar helium has done truthful for a agelong time, Kyoto University's Pavin said. "No substance what, we volition proceed to spot the governmental relation of Thaksin from this constituent onwards, but this clip this relation volition beryllium legitimate."

Thaksin volition not beryllium connected the sidelines adjacent if helium doesn't instrumentality to office, said Chulalongkorn University's Thitinan. 

"Thaksin is not passive successful nature. He's a dealmaker and newsmaker with an ego and truthful we tin expect him to beryllium active," helium said.

"But it volition apt beryllium much similar being influential and calling the shots from the backmost than the front."

— CNBC's Clement Tan contributed to this report.