'Avatar: The Way of Water' could be heading for a $175 million box office opening

It's been much than a decennary since James Cameron's "Avatar" shattered container bureau records. To this day, it remains the highest-grossing rubric globally, aided by respective re-releases.

Its long-awaited sequel, "Avatar: The Way of Water," is besides set to beryllium a blockbuster, but however large of 1 remains to beryllium seen.

The movie, which opens this week, is acceptable to snare betwixt $150 cardinal and $175 cardinal domestically during its opening weekend. If the movie opens successful that range, it volition beryllium the third-largest opening of 2022, conscionable down "Doctor Strange successful the Multiverse of Madness," which tallied $187 cardinal successful May, "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever," which scored $181 cardinal past month, according to information from Comscore.

While the archetypal movie lone opened with $77 cardinal successful 2009, "Avatar" had unparalleled staying powerfulness astatine the container office. Released successful December that year, it ran successful theaters done August 2010, a whopping 234 days. The movie yet generated $760 cardinal successful the U.S. and Canada and much than $2 cardinal from planetary markets.

"In the large picture, I'd expect a leggy container bureau tally whose communicative won't beryllium told connected opening play alone," said Shawn Robbins, main media expert astatine BoxOffice.com. "This is not a comic publication blockbuster with an evident rabid instrumentality basal to front-load sales. James Cameron films person historically engaged wide audiences heavy into their theatrical windows, though it's worthy considering that the container bureau clime has changed adjacent since his erstwhile Avatar movie successful 2009."

"The Way of Water" volition person minimal container bureau contention until February and connection of rima could assistance the movie clasp connected to lucrative premium screens similar IMAX.

Premium formats volition beryllium a large origin successful the film's opening play and its wide container bureau run. Cameron and Disney person marketed "The Way of Water" arsenic a must-see 3D movie, meaning the bulk of showings for the movie volition necessitate peculiar glasses and a steeper summons price.

In fact, a staggering 56% of seats heading into the film's opening play person been programed for 3D showings, according to information from EntTelligence. For comparison, Marvel Studio's "Black Panther: Wakanda Forever" lone had 17% of its seats acceptable speech for 3D.

Premium formats besides travel with a bigger terms tag than their modular counterparts. EntTelligence estimates that for "The Way of Water" 3D tickets volition mean astir $16.50 each portion 2D volition outgo astir $12.50 a piece.

This uptick successful summons prices is expected to buoy the film's opening play numbers arsenic good arsenic its wide tally successful theaters. The movie volition request the boost. Cameron told GQ that the movie will need to go the 3rd oregon fourth-highest grossing movie successful past to interruption even – meaning the movie volition request to ace the $2 cardinal people globally.

If "The Way of Water" is thing similar the archetypal film, it volition get a large boost from planetary summons sales. More than 70% of "Avatar" summons income came from overseas markets successful 2009. And it volition payment from a merchandise successful China.

The Chinese container bureau contributed astir $265 cardinal to "Avatar's" planetary tally a decennary ago, but the marketplace has grown importantly since. Prior to the pandemic, China was the second-highest grossing theatrical marketplace successful the world. Since cinemas reopened successful the country, it has been 1 of the fastest markets to retrieve and make container bureau success.

In 2009, China's wide container bureau reached $910 million. A decennary later, it topped $8 billion.

"Avatar" saw large occurrence successful China during its archetypal release, and subsequent rerelease successful aboriginal 2021, arsenic audiences flocked to cinemas to spot the movie successful premium formats. These screenings are much costly than accepted laser oregon integer showings and tin bolster wide summons sales.

Perhaps astir important astir "The Way of Water" China merchandise is that it volition instrumentality spot connected Dec. 16, the aforesaid time arsenic its home debut. Disney saw occurrence with this strategy erstwhile it released "Avengers: Endgame" connected the aforesaid time successful the U.S. and China, starring to the highest planetary opening play successful cinematic history.

"The enormity of the stakes for 'Avatar: The Way of Water' and its container bureau show are profound connected galore fronts," said Paul Dergarabedian, elder media expert astatine Comscore, noting that determination are 3 different films successful the Avatar franchise successful development.