CNBC Daily Open: Consumers might just fend off a U.S. recession

Stocks rebound
Major U.S. indexes roseate Tuesday successful a tech-fueled rally, shaking disconnected their multiday losing streaks. However, U.S. futures dipped slightly successful overnight trading. European markets traded higher too. The pan-European Stoxx 600 inched up 0.05%, breaking its six-day losing streak. That's partially acknowledgment to a 16% surge successful shares of fintech institution Wise, which reported income maturation of 73% twelvemonth connected year.

Recession warning
The U.S. volition slip into recession successful the 4th fourth this year, and volition proceed languishing successful it for 2024, according to HSBC Asset Management. Additionally, the euro portion volition articulation the U.S. successful seeing its system declaration adjacent year. The metallic lining of this forecast: Inflation volition autumn quickly, and HSBC expects the Federal Reserve to chopped rates by the extremity of this year.

Higher rates for longer
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said inflation successful the euro zone is inactive "too precocious and is acceptable to stay truthful for excessively long." In May, header ostentation was 6.1% for the region, little than April's speechmaking of 7% but inactive 3 times the ECB's people of 2%. Lagarde warned that it's improbable the ECB volition intermission rates, fto unsocial chopped them, anytime soon.

Unity's A.I. marketplace
Unity shares jumped implicit 15% to interaction $42.38 per stock aft the institution launched a marketplace for artificial quality software. The institution develops a crippled motor — besides called Unity — that allows users to nutrient games for phones and consoles. With the caller marketplace, users tin take bundle from different companies to make AI graphics, text, dependable and truthful on.

[PRO] Seth Klarman connected markets
Legendary capitalist Seth Klarman of Baupost Group spoke with CNBC Tuesday successful an exclusive interview. Two highlights: Klarman pointed retired one of the astir communal mistakes regular investors perpetrate erstwhile buying scale funds and identified a "hunting ground" for investors looking for opportunities. Watch the afloat interrogation here.

Recession, recession, recession. The calls are getting truthful large you'd inactive perceive them adjacent if you covered your ears.

Here's Joseph Little, planetary main strategist astatine HSBC Asset Management: ""The coming recession script volition beryllium much similar the aboriginal 1990s recession, with our cardinal script being a 1-2% drawdown successful GDP."

JPMorgan Chase's apical strategist Marko Kolanovic: "We expect a much challenging backdrop for stocks … fixed the decelerating system and a apt recession starting successful 4Q23/1Q24."

Baupost Group Chief Executive Officer Seth Klarman: "The extremity of the Fed is to trim the vigor successful the economy, and 1 mode to bash that is to trigger immoderate benignant of recession … truthful possibly it's an aboriginal 2024 event."

Yet caller economical information from the U.S. showed a resilient system that, with luck, mightiness yet defy those predictions.

Consumer confidence roseate much than anticipated to deed the highest level since January 2022; the proportionality of respondents expecting a recession declined 4 percent points (though it's inactive precocious astatine 69.3%).

The lodging market, mostly an aboriginal indicator of a downturn, besides showed astonishing strength. New location sales successful May roseate 12.2% from April — economists were expecting a driblet of 1.2%. Home prices successful April accrued 1.3% period implicit month, according to the Case-Shiller index, a intimately watched gauge.

Demand for durable goods, which are typically large purchases similar televisions and proscription instrumentality that necessitate semipermanent payments, accelerated 1.7% successful May. That's faster than April's 1.2% summation and acold much than the Dow Jones estimation of a 1% decline.

All those information amusement that the U.S. user isn't yet buckling nether higher involvement rates and (ostensibly) dimmer economical prospects.

And if Wolfe Research's Chief Investment Strategist Chris Senyek's anticipation for "the U.S. user to beryllium the #1 operator of the economical outlook" proves right, past that spot successful consumers mightiness let the U.S. system to fend disconnected a recession, contempt a chorus of voices predicting one.