CNBC Daily Open: The long-awaited recession might not arrive

Waiting for earnings
U.S. stocks made flimsy gains Monday, but trading measurement was little than mean arsenic investors braced for second-quarter earning. European markets, connected the different hand, fell. The determination Stoxx 600 scale declined 0.6% arsenic astir sectors and bourses successful the portion fell.

Separating the wheat from the people
Russia terminated the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed Ukraine to export nutrient and fertilizers from 3 Ukrainian ports, hours earlier the statement expired. The prices of wheat, maize and soybean each rose connected the news. U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres antecedently described the deal arsenic "indispensable" to planetary nutrient security.

Merger bonanza
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reduced its involvement successful Activision Blizzard from 6.7% past twelvemonth to 1.9% yesterday, according to a securities filing released Monday. The quality comes arsenic Microsoft inches closer to completing its $68.7 cardinal acquisition of Activision. Buffett antecedently revealed Berkshire added to its archetypal Activision involvement successful a stake the woody would adjacent and origin shares to rise.

Unraveling the Thread
Meta's Threads, its rival to Twitter, launched to great excitement. But not everyone is thrilled. House Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan has asked Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg to hand implicit documents astir contented moderation connected Threads, according to a missive obtained exclusively by CNBC. The petition is related to an ongoing probe of exertion platform's policies.

[PRO] The S&P 5,400
Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research and antecedently main concern strategist astatine assorted fiscal institutions, thinks the S&P 500 could spell connected an extended bull tally and deed a grounds precocious of 5,400 wrong the adjacent 18 months. Here's why the marketplace seasoned is truthful optimistic.

Investors were cautiously optimistic yesterday.

Major U.S. indexes edged up. The Dow Jones Industrial Average precocious 0.22% to deed its highest adjacent this year. The S&P 500 gained 0.39% and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.93%.

It should beryllium noted, however, that trading measurement was muted. The SPDR S&P 500 exchange-traded fund, which tracks the wide index, traded 52.4 cardinal shares, beneath its 30-day mean of 79.1 million.

The slower gait of trading makes sense. Major companies are owed to merchandise their net reports, starting with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley connected Tuesday arsenic good arsenic Goldman Sachs, Netflix and Tesla connected Wednesday.  

Investors braced for those reports — and they aren't expecting bully news. Analysts deliberation second-quarter S&P 500 net volition beryllium much than 7% little than they were a twelvemonth ago, according to FactSet data.

But the bully quality is past quarter's net mightiness beryllium the floor. And things are looking up, not conscionable for markets, but the economy. The long-awaited U.S. recession? Many analysts present deliberation it's not simply precocious — it mightiness not adjacent amusement up.

With some consumer and producer terms indexes cooling much than expected, "bringing ostentation down to an acceptable level volition not necessitate a recession," Goldman Sachs' main economist Jan Hatzius wrote, cutting his projection of a recession from 25% to 20%.

JPMorgan Chase's main planetary markets strategist Marko Kolanovic has been skeptical of a brushed landing. But adjacent helium noted that "the resilience of the US and planetary expansions should stay successful place," causing the slope to "downplay near-term recession risks."

And Ed Yardeni thinks the recession — albeit "a rolling recession," meaning that antithetic sectors of the system person taken turns to declaration — is already down us. Instead, "now … we're successful a rolling recovery," Yardeni said.

As net reports are released, don't look astatine companies' figures for the past quarter. Keep an oculus retired for their projections for the remainder of the year. We mightiness yet spot signs of anticipation the system volition proceed growing.