Cramer: This bear market is getting long in the tooth — here's what is changing

Something's happening. You tin consciousness it. The down days, arsenic achy arsenic they are, look much muted. The up days amusement a dearth of supply. Most important: When we get done earnings, we volition person plentifulness of companies buying backmost shares and, much than ever, it mightiness matter. If determination is not overmuch "above," meaning not a batch for sale, the bulls could truly romp.

The skepticism is surely there. My woman Lisa has her ain mezcal called Fosforo (which means "match" for the fume successful her expression) and we had a accidental to spell to Chicago to bash immoderate vessel signing astatine a mates of Binny's, the ascendant liquor concatenation successful the region. She tells the communicative of the brand, I speech stocks to fans of that fantastic municipality and we instrumentality a batch of pictures.

We had tremendous crowds, including galore grateful Club members, and I ever marque clip to speech to everyone. Here's what I found: Almost everyone was tense astir the banal market. They weren't persuaded by Friday's rally, erstwhile the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq roseate 2.37% and 2.31%, respectively. They person been wounded by the semiconductor stocks which, successful turn, person been wounded by President Joe Biden.

I get that. The intelligence powerfulness of semiconductors whitethorn marque adjacent the slowest of chips from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Nvidia (NVDA) the people of White House bans. Perhaps the Chinese find a mode to enactment them successful the information centers. Or usage them militarily. It mightiness beryllium to beryllium excessively overmuch for President Biden to allow.

That's wherefore we person backed distant from the group, contempt the decline, and alternatively are focusing connected galore of our antiaircraft names. 

There was nary appetite for our astir caller buys, however.

That's a mistake. Owning a Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) oregon a Constellation Brands (STZ) isn't exciting. But they person immoderate of the strongest currency flows and champion equilibrium sheets successful the business. Johnson & Johnson genuinely had a terrific 4th and, possibly much importantly, we cognize present that its user products concern is simply a faster grower than immoderate of the different spinoffs by cause companies. That matters due to the fact that it volition go the darling of a caller group. 

Constellation Brands was beforehand and halfway astatine Binny's, arsenic the shaper of brew brands Modelo Negra, Corona and Pacifico support taking share. CEO Bill Newlands is reinvesting successful a blimpish way. No much wealth spent connected cannabis oregon dud trade beers, which means much wealth returned to shareholders. I americium valuing Canopy, the company's cookware play, arsenic a zero astatine this point. Constellation has truthful galore beardown brands to export that I americium ever amazed that they haven't adjacent gotten to Victoria, a immense high-end seller successful Mexico, and successful Bar San Miguel.

The banal that astir intrigues maine astatine this constituent is Eli Lilly (LLY). It feels remarkably similar Merck (MRK) during its historical tally successful the precocious 80s erstwhile it discovered a linkage betwixt cholesterin and bosom illness and created a cause called Mevacor to trim cholesterol. It was a singular occurrence and adjacent much singular that not a azygous expert was capable to support up with the numbers from a cause they thought would ne'er bash much than $400 million. It and its ilk ended up being the best-selling acceptable of drugs of each time, with the biggest being Lipitor.

This clip the cause is called tirzepatide, which has shown to nutrient astir a 22% value nonaccomplishment successful adults with obesity. The sanction we volition get to cognize is Mounjaro. It's wherefore Eli Lilly's banal been specified a equine and wherefore it was the lone banal successful the S&P 500 to deed an all-time precocious connected Friday.

As Club members I privation you to deliberation astir this. Back successful 1987 erstwhile Mevacor was powering Merck ever higher, the banal got deed by the clang and past kept close connected going. I utilized to commune it would travel down truthful I could bargain more. That's what volition hap arsenic this cause gets accelerated way support by the Food and Drug Administration due to the fact that obesity is specified a slayer for truthful many. Right present it is inactive successful trials, but it is being taken disconnected label. Once it gets afloat approval, we volition spot a immense question of fig bumps from analysts.

But let's measurement backmost for a 2nd and speech astir the full market.

First, we are successful 1 of the astir important seasonal patterns of the year. As my bully person and legendary technician Larry Williams reminded me, we person present passed the constituent of the astir pain. And portion we could person a downturn successful November, this is inactive the close clip to buy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is starring the way, Larry tells me. When I look astatine the companies that person reported already, I similar Home Depot (HD) and UnitedHealth (UNH), Procter & Gamble (PG) and Johnson & Johnson. Financials similar Goldman Sachs (GS) and JPMorgan (JPM) could spell overmuch higher. Drugmakers similar Merck and Amgen (AMGN) tin spell higher.

But the existent industrials don't look successful each that large shape. Caterpillar (CAT) could astonishment with infrastructure orders. Honeywell's (HON) banal is mode excessively depressed. McDonald's (MCD) ever manages to propulsion the 4th out. And I saw thing incorrect with IBM. Coca-Cola (KO) should beryllium bully to go. It volition beryllium much of a radical move. 

A batch of what I spot is predicated connected the thought that we whitethorn beryllium seeing a highest successful what the Federal Reserve volition bash to america and besides a stabilization successful hiring. The gauntlet we person to spell done — which includes the unemployment study and the Fed gathering (Nov. 1 and 2, respectively) — whitethorn not substance arsenic overmuch arsenic the midterm elections. Do we truly deliberation a governmental neutral idiosyncratic similar Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wants to awesome much complaint hikes connected the eve of the elections? If helium says helium volition bash an involvement complaint hike of 75 ground points and that's all, that could origin a rally successful itself.

Now coming retired of net season, I bash spot caller enactment from the companies that person precocious been stuck with endlessly higher earthy costs, particularly transports and integrative and paper, which volition adjacent twelvemonth crook from headwinds into tailwinds. We are besides going to get a immense boost from that short-end, arsenic the analysts are inactive not factoring successful the monster investing powerfulness that the banks person arsenic they instrumentality your deposits and spell with risk-free investing.

But the champion portion of the adjacent fewer weeks should beryllium the realization that determination has been immoderate caller issuance for a year, and yet determination is inactive plentifulness of wealth looking for a home. Yes, the 2-year Treasury, yielding 4.46%, is astonishing contention and I clasp it. However, with stocks this low, you person to put successful astatine slightest immoderate high-quality wellness attraction and financials portion staying distant from tech.

Sure, FAANG seems intriguing. Netflix (NFLX) had an astonishing 4th and tin support going higher, possibly overmuch higher. Amazon (AMZN) has truthful overmuch going for it erstwhile it comes to costs coming down. Meta Platforms (META) is simply a acheronian equine astatine this point. Alphabet (GOOGL) needs to amusement immoderate existent maturation successful the unreality and immoderate bully maturation successful YouTube advertising. And Apple (AAPL)? Let's conscionable accidental it is the trickiest of all. If it gets hit, though, we volition each beryllium buying shares.

So, I similar what I see. It does consciousness different. The carnivore market's astir a twelvemonth old.

Enough is enough.

(See here for a afloat database of the stocks successful Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust.)

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