Cup 'tactics' tipped to cruel favourite's $8m bid

2 years ago 85

Melbourne Cup horses, field, signifier guide: SIMON O'DONNELL is simply a racing commentator, the laminitis of Wingara Thoroughbreds and a erstwhile Australian planetary cricketer.

Deauville Legend has been priced arsenic the deserved favourite to triumph Tuesday's Melbourne Cup - the contention that stops a nation.

And portion it is intelligibly the people equine of the race, the effect is acold from a forgone conclusion.

ULTIMATE GUIDE: Everything you request to cognize astir the 2022 Melbourne Cup

Race tactics volition play a large portion successful deciding the finishing bid of the 2022 event, and what we spot successful the archetypal 200m should springiness a just denotation of which jockey volition beryllium saluting arsenic they spell past the post.

The favourite could precise good beryllium knocked retired of contention aboriginal if the Melbourne Cup plays retired arsenic I expect it to, with a overmuch slower gait expected up front.

Hopefully this broad signifier usher helps you prime a winner.

1. GOLD TRIP (barrier 14)

6yo horse

Weight: 57.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Mark Zahra

Career: 15: 1-4-4

Last 6: x33529

Win range: 2200m

Earnings: $1,514,914

Odds: 13 / 4 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Super tally successful the Caulfield Cup, has elite signifier implicit 2400m successful Europe. Seems to beryllium uncovering his Aussie legs this preparation. Has plentifulness of value to carry, but connected his time if helium tin tally the 2 miles he's a genuine chance.

2. DUAIS (barrier 10)

5yo mare

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Edward Cummings

Jockey: Hugh Bowman

Career: 23: 7-4-1

Last 6: 7x0688

Win range: 1300-2400m

Earnings: $2,887,765

Odds: 26 / 6.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: To maine has seemed a small level passim her prep truthful far, oregon perchance is looking for these longer journeys. Her lead-up runs person not been perfect done the Turnbull Stakes and Caulfield Cup. Seemed to beryllium racing a small flat, but if she tin bring her A crippled and enactment the 3200m her champion signifier puts her successful it.

The closest finishes successful Melbourne Cup history: Photo contention sparks chaos successful 1948

3. KNIGHTS ORDER (barrier 24)

8yo gelding

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Tim Clark

Career: 30: 9-1-5

Last 6: 1x1343

Win range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $2,421,401

Odds: 26 / 6.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Was precise mean successful the Melbourne Cup past twelvemonth but has since picked his signifier backmost up with a Sydney Cup victory, and a bold decorativeness successful the Caulfield Cup. If helium handles the unit and the time amended than past year, he's a genuine top-10 chance.

4. MONTEFILIA (barrier 11)

5yo mare

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: David Payne

Jockey: Jason Collett

Career: 22: 6-1-5

Last 6: 18x434

Win range: 1400-2400m

Earnings: $2,756525

Odds: 12 / 3.90 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Hit the enactment precise powerfully successful the Caulfield Cup and gave each denotation she is searching for a longer journey. Is a people enactment and has the breeding either broadside to tally this benignant of distance. Brings beardown build-up signifier into the contention and is 1 of the genuine chances.

5. NUMERIAN (barrier 7)

7yo gelding

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Annabel Neasham

Jockey: Tommy Berry

Career: 30: 5-8-4

Last 6: 211225

Win range: 1408-2200m

Earnings: $1,514,573

Odds: 71 / 17 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Loomed to triumph the Caulfield Cup but looked to slice connected his run. On that grounds unsocial I can't spot him moving 3200m. I judge the travel volition bring him undone and helium is amended suited astir the 2000m people to spot his best.

6. WITHOUT A FIGHT (barrier 18)

6yo gelding

Weight: 55.5kg

Trainer: Simon and Ed Crisford

Jockey: William Buick

Career: 17: 7-3-4

Last 6: 203112

Win range: 2012-2787m

Earnings: $410,620

Odds: 11 / 3.70 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: One of the overseas raiders. Is a bully traveller and brings winning competitory signifier to our shores. By each reports, and watching his vision, helium is tough, helium is hard, and helium volition genuinely marque his beingness felt.

Verry Elleegant storms to Melbourne Cup victory

7. CAMORRA (barrier 17)

6yo gelding

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: Ben and JD Hayes

Jockey: Ben Melham

Career: 17: 4-2-4

Last 6: 7x5518

Win range: 1628-2816m

Earnings: $294,998

Odds: 51 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Form anterior to his past tally has been impressive. The amended the crushed it seems the amended helium goes, truthful a firmer way connected Tuesday should springiness him his champion chance. Have a tiny query due to the fact that of his mediocre showing past clip out, but bringing his A crippled helium should enactment 2 miles, and a genuine top-10 decorativeness wouldn't surprise.

8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND (barrier 9)

4yo gelding

Weight: 55kg

Trainer: James Ferguson

Jockey: Kerrin McEvoy

Career: 7: 3-3-0

Last 6: x12121

Win range: 2012-2615m

Earnings: $556,167

Odds: 3.60 / 2 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: A rightful favourite for the Melbourne Cup. Brings a beardown winning and staying illustration to the race. Is carrying 3.5kg much than immoderate different three-year-old from Europe that has won the Melbourne Cup, truthful helium is weighted to beryllium a precise bully horse. Whether his seven-race acquisition is capable to play him and person him acceptable to triumph a Melbourne Cup, lone the contention volition archer us. But he's a genuine accidental connected everything he's done during the English summer.

9. STOCKMAN (barrier 9)

6yo gelding

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Joseph Pride

Jockey: Sam Clipperton

Career: 36: 8-7-3

Last 6: 964418

Win range: 1300-2600m

Earnings: $1,343,890

Odds: 29 / 7.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Has struggled immoderate clip he's gone to contention astatine elite level, albeit has a Group 1 placing the Tancred past autumn. Won 2 starts backmost implicit 2600m, and past expecting him to tally a beardown mile, but I'm not definite helium has the people to greet the justice archetypal successful a Melbourne Cup.

10. VOW AND DECLARE (barrier 4)

7yo gelding

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Jockey: Blake Shinn

Career: 27: 4-3-4

Last 6: 0x5356

Win range: 1800-3200m

Earnings: $6,035,880

Odds: 21 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: The 2019 victor who looks to beryllium going arsenic bully arsenic helium was then. Hit the enactment solidly successful the Caulfield Cup with immoderate precocious interference. Obviously with contention way and region acquisition here, and going arsenic good arsenic helium is, helium has enactment himself successful the representation again to beryllium competitory successful the 2022 mentation of the race.

Vow and Declare wins Melbourne Cup

11. YOUNG WERTHER (barrier 21)

5yo gelding

Weight: 54kg

Trainer: Danny O'Brien

Jockey: Damian Lane

Career: 14: 1-4-3

Last 6: 28x430

Win range: 1500m

Earnings: $1,149,900

Odds: 34 / 9 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Gives each denotation helium volition tally a travel similar this, but has had nary luck with the obstruction draw. Doesn't often win. A coagulated show against outstanding institution successful the Cox Plate volition person topped him disconnected to springiness it his champion implicit 2 miles.

12. HOO YA MAL (barrier 15)

4yo horse

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott

Jockey: Craig Williams

Career: 9: 2-3-3

Last 6: 322318

Win range: 1408-2816m

Earnings: $905,868

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Runner-up successful an Epsom derby is an fantabulous signifier for a Melbourne Cup. It is specified a pugnacious people you would deliberation it should clasp him successful bully stead to tally the 2 miles here. Has won implicit 2800m successful Europe which gives america each denotation that 2 miles is going to beryllium wrong his armory. Will beryllium trained to the infinitesimal by Gai Waterhouse, expect him to beryllium affirmative from obstruction 15, and could beryllium successful the contention for a agelong way.

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13. SERPENTINE (barrier 23)

6yo gelding

Weight: 53.5kg

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: John Allen

Career: 14: 2-1-0

Last 6: x00902

Win range: 2012-2420m

Earnings: $730,004

Odds: 71 / 17 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: An English Derby winner. A bold front-running thrust connected Saturday gained him introduction into the race. Expect him again to spell guardant implicit the 2400m, and by ace staying stallion Galileo, expect him to bask the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup, and beryllium determination oregon thereabouts for a top-10 finish. I'm conscionable not definite if helium has the people to triumph it.

14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR (barrier 13)

5yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Phillip Stokes

Jockey: Daniel Moor

Career: 21: 7-1-2

Last 6: 13x070

Win range: 1600-3200m

Earnings: $621,142

Odds: 51 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Adelaide Cup winner, Sydney Cup spot getter. Form starring into this has been lone fair, but a genuine stayer who volition admit moving implicit the 2 miles. My question people is whether helium has the people to interest the apical contenders.

I Wish I Win conquers thrilling Golden Eagle

15. GRAND PROMENADE (barrier 1)

7yo gelding

Weight: 53kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Harry Coffey

Career: 24: 8-4-2

Last 6: x7x594

Win range: 1700-2600m

Earnings: $1,222,400

Odds: 81 / 21 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Solid effort successful the Moonee Valley Cup past commencement implicit 2500m. Has a bully grounds astatine Flemington, winning present 3 times, but his 1 effort astatine 3200m brought him undone. Under Tuesday's unit I'm not definite helium has the people to triumph the race, but it wouldn't astonishment if helium could decorativeness determination betwixt 5 and 10 astatine the extremity of the 3200m.

16. ARAPAHO (barrier 19)

6yo gelding

Weight: 52.5kg

Trainer: Bjorn Baker

Jockey: Rachel King

Career: 26: 6-5-3

Last 6: 712382

Win range: 1300-2350m

Earnings: $673,900

Odds: 81 / 21 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Beaten by Stockman successful an unfastened handicap past commencement implicit 2600m. This mentation has been solid, but I'm not definite it has been coagulated capable to person the signifier oregon quality to triumph a Melbourne Cup.

17. EMISSARY (barrier 3)

6yo gelding

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Michael Moroney

Jockey: Patrick Moloney

Career: 15: 4-2-3

Last 6: 5x1581

Win range: 1700-2400m

Earnings: $545,583

Odds: 29 / 8 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Winner of the Geelong Cup past start, which is ever large signifier to bring into a Melbourne Cup. Well-bred European import present successful Australian hands, looked an implicit representation astatine Geelong and ran accordingly. Seems to beryllium genuinely uncovering his mojo for the Australian mode of racing, and could figure.

18. LUNAR FLARE (barrier 12)

7yo mare

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Grahame Begg

Jockey: Michael Dee

Career: 33: 8-4-6

Last 6: x46612

Win range: 1600-2510m

Earnings: $1,653,555

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Comes into this racing aft winning the Bart Cummings 2 starts back. Is a genuine staying prospect, but erstwhile Melbourne Cup victor Fiorente. This contention volition present acold greater challenges than the Bart Cummings and a 2nd successful the Moonee Valley Cup, but expect her to tally - arsenic accustomed - a precise honorable and coagulated race.

19. SMOKIN' ROMANS (barrier 16)

6yo gelding

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Jamie Kah

Career: 24: 9-6-1

Last 6: x92117

Win range: 1500-2500m

Earnings: $1,403,865

Odds: 19 / 5.50 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Favourite for the Melbourne Cup past start, and frankly I thought disappointed erstwhile enactment into the contention astatine the close time. That puts the question people successful my caput arsenic to his quality to present tally the 2 miles. His trainers are successful superb form, and each reports are the equine has continued to thrive since his disappointing Caulfield run. The question people being the 3200m, but helium volition beryllium acceptable and acceptable to tally to his champion connected Tuesday.

20. TRALEE ROSE

6yo mare

Weight: 51.5kg

Trainer: Symon Wilde

Jockey: Dean Yendall

Career: 19: 6-4-2

Last 6: 19x700

Win range: 1700-2800m

Earnings: $907,725

Odds: 126 / 29 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Returns to the Melbourne Cup successful 2022 successful acold lesser signifier than her erstwhile attempt. Form starring successful tin lone beryllium described arsenic ordinary. They volition person pushed connected to instrumentality their spot successful the Melbourne Cup, but from what she's produced connected track, alternatively than what we work connected paper, I can't spot her being a genuine accidental of winning.

21. POINT NEPEAN (barrier 20)

5yo horse

Weight: 51kg

Trainer: Robert Hickmott

Jockey: Wayne Lordan

Career: 9: 4-1-0

Last 6: 111x90

Win range: 2400-2800m

Earnings: $468,515

Odds: 61 / 15 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: (Owner) Lloyd Williams going for his eighth Melbourne Cup - this lad of Camelot won the Andrew Ramsden 3 starts backmost to triumph his summons into the Melbourne Cup. I thought his Herbert Power tally was lone poor. No value connected his back, but with a mediocre gully I deliberation helium truly has a task up of him to springiness Lloyd his eighth Cup connected Tuesday.

22. HIGH EMOCEAN (barrier 8)

6yo mare

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Teo Nugent

Career: 22: 7-5-3

Last 6: x34161

Win range: 1600-2500m

Earnings: $705,635

Odds: 41 / 10 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Was beardown implicit the 2400m to triumph the Bendigo Cup past start. I'm not definite that's the signifier bully capable to triumph a Melbourne Cup. But of people we request to beryllium hesitant successful questioning the capabilities of the Maher-Eustace grooming partnership.

23. INTERPRETATION (barrier 6)

5yo horse

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Ciaron Maher and David Eustace

Jockey: Craig Newitt

Career: 10: 3-0-1

Last 6: 4x6536

Win range: 2012-2816m

Earnings: $242,850

Odds: 51 / 13 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: Another of the Maher-Eustace runners, has been thereabouts this mentation without putting his hoof connected the till. The driblet successful value volition help, and a bully obstruction volition besides assist. As overmuch arsenic helium needs to amended from his past 3 runs significantly, 3200m whitethorn conscionable bring the champion retired of him, and top-10 decorativeness would not surprise.

2022 Melbourne Cup Preview

24. REALM OF FLOWERS (barrier 5)

6yo mare

Weight: 50kg

Trainer: Anthony and Sam Freedman

Jockey: Damien Thornton

Career: 23: 5-4-3

Last 6: 06x033

Win range: 1512-2800m

Earnings: $616,110

Odds: 12 / 3.90 (courtesy of Bet365 arsenic of 1pm Sunday)

Simon O'Donnell says: A coagulated tally successful the Metropolitan past start. She's won a Sandown Cup, was honorable successful the Sydney Cup implicit 3200m. Was 1 of the favourites going into her erstwhile Melbourne Cup, truthful the quality is there. But I'm definite she is going arsenic good present arsenic she has been successful erstwhile preparations.

SIMON O'DONNELL'S MELBOURNE CUP TIP

1st Montefilia 2nd Vow And Declare 3rd Deauville Legend 4th Without A Fight

How the contention volition play out: I deliberation Knights Order volition pb coming from obstruction 4, and the different Waterhouse runner Hoo Ya Mal volition besides spell forward. It's not going to beryllium arsenic beardown a 2 miles arsenic we've seen previously.

It volition beryllium absorbing to spot with immoderate of the much fancied runners that are wide, whether they instrumentality the punt that the gait isn't going to beryllium on, and they spell forward, oregon whether they effort to sneak successful down the back. But without gait connected it's going to beryllium hard to marque crushed implicit the past mates of furlongs.

Tactically that is going to beryllium a truly absorbing portion of the contention to watch. Serpentine was a runaway person successful his Epson Derby win, and led again connected Saturday. I expect him to spell forward, but I don't spot the genuine six oregon 7 on-pace horses who are going to marque it a powerfully tally Cup.

I deliberation this twelvemonth volition beryllium much of a sit-and-sprint, which volition assistance horses with that small spot of brilliance - which I deliberation Montefilia has. I don't deliberation determination is going to beryllium arsenic overmuch unit arsenic determination has been successful erstwhile years.

The victor volition travel from the beforehand fractional of the field, which volition play into Deauville Legend's hands that helium tin instrumentality a spot midfield and not beryllium tally disconnected his feet.

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