Europe's gas storage is almost full for winter. But the IEA fears next year may be very difficult

The enforcement manager of the International Energy Agency connected Wednesday said that portion Europe's state retention for this wintertime was astir full, the pursuing 1 could airs a important challenge.

Taking questions pursuing a gathering of the Economic Council of Finland, Fatih Birol said adjacent to 90% of state retention was afloat successful Europe.

"I would person preferred that the European countries were overmuch much nimble, overmuch … faster, to respond to our recommendations," helium told reporters, referencing the IEA's 10-point program connected however to trim Europe's reliance connected Russian gas pursuing the Kremlin's penetration of Ukraine.

"But wherever we are is not atrocious and I expect if determination are nary surprises — governmental and method surprises — and if the wintertime … is simply a mean winter, Europe tin spell done this wintertime with immoderate bruises present and there, but we tin travel to February and March."

At this point, Birol said retention levels volition apt person dropped to betwixt 25% and 30%. "So the question is, however bash we spell from 25% oregon 30% to, erstwhile again, [for the] 2023 wintertime … 80-90%?"

"What helped america this time, [is that] we inactive imported immoderate state from Russia successful the past fewer months," helium said. In addition, China had imported "less state than it would person otherwise" owed to what Birol called "very sluggish economical performance."

The scenario, Birol, said, could alteration successful 2023, particularly with respect to China. "Next year, if Chinese state imports summation with the Chinese system coming back, it volition beryllium [a] alternatively hard fewer months starting from March to adjacent winter."

"So this wintertime is difficult, but adjacent wintertime whitethorn besides beryllium precise hard arsenic well," helium said, adding that preparations for the second play needed to commencement today.

Birol's comments travel astatine a clip erstwhile Europe is scrambling to enactment up vigor supplies arsenic the warfare successful Ukraine continues.

Russia was the biggest supplier of some petroleum oils and earthy state to the EU past year, according to Eurostat, but successful a study published connected Monday, the IEA said state exports from Russia to the European Union had seen a important diminution this year.

"Despite disposable accumulation and transport capacity, Russia has reduced its state supplies to the European Union by adjacent to 50% y-o-y since the commencement of 2022," the Paris-based organization's latest Gas Market Report said.

"In the existent context, the implicit shutdown of Russian pipeline state supplies to the European Union cannot beryllium excluded up of the 2022/23 heating play — erstwhile the European state marketplace is astatine its astir vulnerable," the study added.

In a motion of however challenging the existent concern is, vigor steadfast Orsted precocious announced it would continue oregon restart operations astatine 3 fossil substance facilities aft being ordered by Danish authorities to bash so.

In a connection implicit the weekend, Orsted — whose biggest stakeholder is the Danish authorities — said the absorption had been made "to guarantee the information of the energy proviso successful Denmark."

A fewer days earlier Orsted's announcement, different large European vigor firm, Germany's RWE, said 3 of its lignite, oregon brownish coal, units would "temporarily instrumentality to [the] energy marketplace to fortify information of proviso and prevention state successful powerfulness generation."

RWE said each of the units had a 300-megawatt capacity. "Their deployment is initially constricted until 30 June 2023," it added.