Exxon predicted global warming with remarkable accuracy years ago, study shows

Three academics from Harvard and the University of Potsdam in Germany published a survey successful the diary Science connected Thursday providing grounds that Exxon Mobil, the lipid and state behemoth with a existent marketplace capitalization of $466 billion, predicted planetary warming with unthinkable accuracy successful a bid of interior reports and messages starting successful the 1970s.

"Specifically, what's caller present is that we enactment a fig connected – and overgarment a representation of – what Exxon knew and when," said survey co-author Geoffrey Supran, who worked arsenic a probe subordinate astatine Harvard erstwhile helium did this work.

"We present person airtight, unimpeachable grounds that ExxonMobil accurately predicted planetary warming years earlier it turned astir and publically attacked clime subject and scientists. Our findings amusement that ExxonMobil's nationalist denial of clime subject contradicted its ain scientists' data," Supran told CNBC. "This corroborates and adds statistical precision to the anterior conclusions of scholars, journalists, lawyers, and politicians."

The operation and hashtag "ExxonKnew" person go a rallying outcry aft erstwhile reporting from Inside Climate News and others showing that Exxon publically contradicted its ain knowing of clime science.

Exxon Mobil says the "ExxonKnew" question is simply a "coordinated campaign" moving to "stigmatize" the lipid company, "creating the mendacious quality that ExxonMobil has misrepresented its institution probe and capitalist disclosures connected clime alteration to the public."

The catalyst for the probe was a viral tweet, Supran told CNBC.

Stefan Rahmstorf, a physics prof astatine the University of Potsdam, saw a planetary warming predictive illustration from Exxon Mobil that Supran and Harvard prof Naomi Oreskes had antecedently discovered, and overlaid existent humanities information connected apical of Exxon's.

"The overlap was startling," Supran said and erstwhile Rahmstorf blogged and tweeted astir it, the results got a batch of attention, "by the standards of clime subject connected Twitter anyway," Supran told CNBC.

The 3 academics past realized that the accuracy of Exxon's climate's projections hadn't been formally studied, and teamed up to constitute this report. They were amazed to observe is the grade and accuracy of Exxon's cognition of clime science.

"It was startling to crippled each of the company's projections onto 1 graph and find them each enactment up truthful tightly astir the real-world somesthesia emergence that has ensued since their reports. That gave maine pause, seeing quantitatively that Exxon didn't just know some clime science, they helped beforehand it," Supran told CNBC. "They didn't conscionable vaguely know 'something' about planetary warming decades ago, they knew arsenic overmuch arsenic autarkic world and authorities scientists did. Arguably, they knew each they needed to know." 

According to their research, the academics recovered that between 63% and 83% of the clime projections Exxon made were close successful predicting aboriginal clime alteration and planetary warming. Exxon predicted that clime alteration would origin planetary warming of 0.20° ± 0.04 degrees Celsius per decade, which is the aforesaid arsenic world and governmental predictions that came retired betwixt 1970 and 2007.

The survey successful Science builds connected enactment done by investigative journalists astatine Inside Climate News backmost successful 2015 and Democratic lawmakers astatine the House Committee connected Oversight and Reform, among galore others.

Exxon continues to contradict its wrongdoing.

"This contented has travel up respective times successful caller years and, successful each case, our reply is the same: those who speech astir however 'Exxon Knew' are incorrect successful their conclusions," Todd Spitler, spokesperson for Exxon Mobil, told CNBC.

Spitler pointed to the results of a 2019 lawsuit heard earlier the New York State Supreme Court by Judge Barry Ostrager which did not find the lipid and state institution blameworthy of fraud successful its climate alteration regularisation accounting.

"What the grounds astatine proceedings revealed is that ExxonMobil executives and employees were uniformly committed to rigorously discharging their duties successful the astir broad and meticulous mode possible," Ostrager wrote, and Spitler passed on to CNBC. "The grounds of these witnesses demonstrated that ExxonMobil has a civilization of disciplined analysis, planning, accounting, and reporting."