Fake referendums in occupied Ukraine set the stage for annexation — and immense danger for Ukraine

The results from a bid of alleged referendums that person taken spot successful occupied parts of Ukraine —which predictably amusement a resounding bulk voting to articulation Russia — acceptable the signifier for Moscow to denote their annexation successful the coming days.

That, analysts say, could people a unsafe constituent successful the warfare for Ukraine with the anticipation that Russia could crook to unconventional weapons, adjacent atomic weapons, to "defend" what it volition past accidental is its territory and citizens.

"As for the hazard of Russia utilizing these votes and consequent annexation of those territories arsenic a pretext for atomic strikes — we are conscious of this risk, we recognize that it is real," Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, told CNBC Wednesday.

"Even if Russia's person is himself brainsick capable to contemplate oregon adjacent see conducting a atomic onslaught connected Ukrainian territory, hopefully not each those radical who situation him are that crazy. But again, this is not thing we tin number connected truthful we, arsenic Ukraine, person to beryllium prepared for the worse and the planetary assemblage has to beryllium prepared not to budge, not to cave to this atomic blackmail."

President Vladimir Putin and different apical officials successful Moscow person often warned that Russia could usage atomic weapons if it feels determination is an existential menace to the Russian Federation.

Just connected Tuesday Putin state and erstwhile President Dmitry Medvedev wrote connected Telegram that Russia had a "right" to usage atomic weapons "if aggression with the usage of accepted weapons threatens the precise beingness of our state."

Medvedev erstwhile again repeated Moscow's mendacious mantra that Ukraine was being controlled by NATO countries and said "we volition bash everything to forestall the quality of atomic weapons successful our hostile neighbors," adding that "they recognize that if the menace to Russia exceeds the established information limit, we volition person to respond."

Those comments came aft Putin said past week that the Kremlin volition "certainly usage each the means astatine our disposal to support Russia and our people. It is not a bluff."

Results from the referendums, successful which coercive and illegal voting practices were wide (electoral officials reportedly went door-to-door to unit and cod votes), showed that betwixt 87% and 99% of residents successful those regions had voted to articulation the Russian Federation. The results are wide seen arsenic rigged and Ukraine and its Western allies person denounced the votes and garbage to admit them.

In a connection Wednesday, Ukraine's overseas ministry said "forcing radical successful these territories to capable retired immoderate papers astatine the tube of a weapon is yet different Russian transgression successful the people of its aggression against Ukraine" and said the occupied regions remained Ukraine's sovereign territory.

Calling connected the planetary assemblage to condemn Russia's latest enactment of aggression and instantly deed Moscow with much sanctions successful a bid to halt the annexation, Ukrainian Foreign Minster Dmytro Kuleba said connected Facebook that "you cannot halt the annexation with words of heavy interest and idiosyncratic sanctions — superior steps are needed."

For Russia's part, it says it conscionable wants to "protect" Russian citizens and taste Russians surviving successful occupied regions — having itself acceptable up a process of "Russification" of occupied oregon separatist areas with the handing retired of Russian passports and promotion of Russian civilization and education.

On Tuesday, Russia's ambassador to the U.N., Vasily Nebenzya, said that Russia would "bring peace" to the Donbass and would put and make the portion and different territories, arsenic helium claimed Russia had done successful Crimea (which was besides annexed successful 2014 aft a falsified referendum).

It's present expected that Putin, who is expected to code Russia's Duma, oregon little location of parliament, connected Friday, could denote past that the occupied regions are being incorporated into the Russian Federation.

Russian quality bureau Tass reported that the Duma whitethorn adjacent statement bills incorporating Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine into Russia arsenic aboriginal arsenic Thursday. While different official, Valentina Matviyenko, who chairs the parliament's precocious house, said lawmakers could see annexation authorities connected Oct. 4, Russian quality bureau RIA Novosti reported.

Federica Reccia, Russia and CIS expert astatine the Economist Intelligence Unit, noted Tuesday that "Russia is racing to consolidate its positions successful Ukraine and integrate Ukraine's south-eastern regions arsenic rapidly arsenic possible."

"Annexing these regions would supply Russia with a pretext to redesignate them arsenic 'de jure' Russian territories, giving Russia a justification to retaliate with disproportionate unit against immoderate attacks connected them," she said successful emailed comments.

"Annexing these territories volition unfastened up a precise unsafe signifier successful the conflict, perchance expanding the hazard of bringing NATO person to a confrontation with Russia," she noted.

Putin is nary uncertainty anxious to bring the struggle successful Ukraine to a decision arsenic soon arsenic possible. Looking to overwhelm Ukraine's effectual counter-attacking forces, Putin past week resorted to a subject mobilization, calling-up astir 300,000 reservists to beryllium sent to the frontline, a determination that prompted galore eligible warring men to effort to fly the draft.

The U.K.'s Ministry of Defence said Tuesday that Russia's leaders "almost surely anticipation that immoderate accession announcement volition beryllium seen arsenic a vindication of the 'special subject operation' and volition consolidate patriotic enactment for the conflict."

"This aspiration volition apt beryllium undermined by the expanding home consciousness of Russia's caller battlefield sets-backs and important unease astir the partial mobilisation announced past week."

For each the Kremlin's saber-rattling implicit atomic weapons, determination are a fig of analysts that stay skeptical arsenic to whether, successful the end, Putin would really edifice to utilizing them, noting that helium has purposefully cultivated an enigmatic persona.

"He has spent 15 years cultivating an representation of himself arsenic this unpredictable fig who, similar a rat successful a corner, mightiness onslaught retired successful ways we don't foresee oregon ways we spot arsenic irrational," John Herbst, elder manager of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center and erstwhile U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told CNBC Wednesday.

"It's a classical KGB [the main information bureau for the Soviet Union for whom Putin worked earlier entering authorities successful the precocious 1990s] ploy" helium said. "Putin is simply a maestro psychologist."

Herbst said that Putin was losing friends and alienating his remaining allies, specified arsenic Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian President Narendra Modi, arsenic the warfare dragged connected and that his subject mobilization had near him isolated and criticized connected a home level.

As such, rhetoric astir the usage of atomic weapons had its usage for an progressively hopeless Putin looking to onslaught fearfulness into the West.

"He is trying to marque the conception that helium mightiness usage atomic weapons arsenic his [way] retired of this crisis. He wants to marque definite the U.S. and NATO don't nonstop much weapons to Ukraine truthful the Ukrainian counteroffensive doesn't continue," Herbst noted.

"We cannot regularisation retired thing irrational connected Putin's portion but it would beryllium highly unsafe for him and for Russia."

Ukrainian authoritative Yuriy Sak said Kyiv hoped that Russian fearfulness of a reprisal from the West would halt it from going excessively far.

"Russia has been utilizing atomic blackmail since time 1 of this aggression, their propaganda instrumentality is talking astir this connected a regular basis. At the aforesaid time, we person heard the leaders of the escaped world, the G-7 and U.S. accidental that, should this God forbid happen, Russia volition look precise terrible consequences and we anticipation that this volition service arsenic a deterrent," helium said.