Florida no longer looks like a swing state after DeSantis, Rubio lead big Republican wins

Once considered the nation's biggest plaything state, Florida is looking much and much similar a Republican stronghold.

The Sunshine State delivered Republicans immoderate of their strongest wins successful the 2022 midterm elections – adjacent arsenic the enactment fell broadly abbreviated of expectations successful astir different battlegrounds.

The state's Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, and Sen. Marco Rubio some glided to triumph against their respective Democratic opponents. DeSantis, whose prima has changeable up successful the Republican Party, easy won different four-year word adjacent arsenic helium is wide expected to beryllium considering a statesmanlike tally successful 2024.

Democrats underperformed successful key demographics, particularly younger voters, ceding crushed up and down the ballot. They adjacent failed to clasp onto Miami-Dade County, the largest successful the authorities and a longtime bluish refuge, successful the Senate and gubernatorial races.

"It was a mess, honestly," said Susan MacManus, a seasoned Florida governmental expert and prof emerita astatine the University of South Florida, successful an interview.

Democrats fell abbreviated connected aggregate fronts successful Florida, MacManus said. They faced a drought successful nationalist funding, a nonaccomplishment to code a increasing registration spread and a large misread connected which issues would resonate with cardinal voters.

"One size fits each perfectly ne'er works successful Florida," she said.

Boasting 30 Electoral College votes and 28 House seats, Florida is bound to clasp large power implicit the nationalist predetermination representation successful 2024. Its colonisation is the 3rd largest of immoderate U.S. state, and increasing – but Democratic elector registration isn't keeping up.

In fact, it's going down, according to information from the Florida caput of state's office. While full registered voters successful the authorities roseate by astir 200,000 to 14.46 cardinal between September 2021 and October 2022, the fig of progressive registered Democrats fell by much than 164,000 to 4,966,873, the information shows. The fig of progressive registered Republican voters, meanwhile, roseate to 5,259,406 successful the aforesaid play — a summation of much than 150,000.

That displacement comes arsenic older Americans, who ballot much heavy Republican, person successful caller years flocked to Florida to discontinue much than immoderate different state. Some reports besides suggest that much Americans were spurred to determination to Florida during the coronavirus pandemic, erstwhile DeSantis' highly nationalist absorption to national societal distancing guidelines endeared him to galore conservatives.

In this month's midterms, older Florida voters came retired successful droves, portion young voters stayed home, NBC's exit polls show. In the governor's race, 70% of full turnout came from voters property 45 oregon older. Those voters sided with DeSantis implicit Democratic erstwhile Gov. and Rep. Charlie Crist by good implicit 20 percent points. The liberal-leaning 18- to-29-year-old demographic, meanwhile, made up conscionable 11% of the vote.

Florida's swing-state presumption was cemented successful the 2000 statesmanlike election, successful which Republican George W. Bush bushed Democrat Al Gore lone aft extensive, highly arguable recounts successful Florida that took much than a period to complete.

In much caller history, Florida's large elections person often been decided by slim margins. Four years earlier, for instance, DeSantis bushed Democrat Andrew Gillum by a borderline of little than fractional a percent point. That was the state's 3rd gubernatorial predetermination successful a enactment to extremity with a borderline of triumph nether 2 percent points.

Not truthful successful past week's midterms. DeSantis trounced Crist by astir 20 percent points successful the gubernatorial contest. On the Senate side, Rubio bushed his Democratic rival, Rep. Val Demings, by much than 16 points.

The state's delegation to the U.S. House volition see 20 Republicans successful the adjacent Congress, a summation of 4 seats. And the GOP extended its gains successful the Florida authorities Legislature, clinching supermajorities successful some chambers.

To beryllium sure, Florida has agelong been a pugnacious situation for Democrats. The authorities has gone reddish successful 8 of the past 11 statesmanlike elections. Its past 4 governors person been Republicans and its House delegation has leaned toward the GOP since 1988.

But the astir caller midterms marked an unambiguous rout for Florida Democrats, particularly erstwhile compared with the party's stronger-than-expected show astir everyplace else.

"I deliberation Democrats mightiness beryllium amended disconnected looking harder astatine Mississippi than Florida," seasoned Democratic strategist James Carville told MSNBC successful the aftermath of the midterms.

Potentially accelerating Florida's governmental displacement is erstwhile President Donald Trump, the de facto person of the GOP, who made Florida his imperishable residence earlier leaving the White House successful 2021. 

In the 2020 race, Trump mislaid the nationalist fashionable ballot by a wider borderline than helium did successful 2016 (when helium besides mislaid the fashionable vote, but won the Electoral College). But successful Florida, his borderline of triumph increased.

Trump, who successful 2015 announced his statesmanlike bid from Trump Tower successful New York City, connected Tuesday nighttime launched his 3rd run from Mar-a-Lago, his Palm Beach edifice home.

Nationally, the Democratic Party apparatus and its biggest donors appeared to suffer anticipation of turning the tide successful Florida, reportedly spending tiny fractions of what they had invested successful erstwhile cycles.

The authorities is besides location to a demographic improvement that benefits Republicans. Unlike successful overmuch of the remainder of the country, Latino voters successful Florida interruption for the GOP. 

In NBC's nationalist exit polls, Latino voters crossed property and sex lines voted much for Democrats. But successful Florida's elections for Senate and governor, much Latinos voted for DeSantis and Rubio, exit polls show.

Analysts often constituent to Florida's precocious colonisation of Cuban Americans, a radical that consistently trends more conservative than different Latinos, to explicate the trend.

But MacManus noted that much Florida voters of Puerto Rican descent sided with Republicans, arsenic well.

Whether oregon not Florida is destined to go a competitory authorities erstwhile again, it whitethorn not hap by the 2024 cycle.

"Everybody I speech to says it's going to instrumentality a while," MacManus said.