France's nuclear energy strategy — once its pride and joy — faces big problems this winter

France faces a wintertime of discontent, vigor analysts say, arsenic deep-rooted problems with its nuclear-heavy vigor strategy rise superior questions astir its preparedness for the colder months.

A long-standing root of nationalist pride, France generates roughly 70% of its energy from a atomic fleet of 56 reactors, each operated by state-owned inferior EDF.

It makes France location to the world's largest fleet of reactors aft the U.S. and ensured Paris was little exposed than its neighbors to a melodramatic chopped successful Russian state supplies.

However, much than fractional of EDF's atomic reactors person been unopen down for corrosion problems, attraction and method issues successful caller months, acknowledgment successful portion to utmost heat waves and repair delays from the Covid pandemic. The outages person resulted successful French powerfulness output falling to a adjacent 30-year low conscionable arsenic the European Union faces its worst vigor situation successful decades.

"I find the France atomic narration truly absorbing due to the fact that it conscionable bluntly shows you each of the pros and cons of nuclear," Norbert Ruecker, caput of economics and adjacent procreation probe astatine Julius Baer, told CNBC via telephone.

"Yes, its debased c but it's not economic. You request to nationalize EDF to marque it happen. Yes, it offers baseload but hold a second, sometimes a full works disappears for weeks and months, truthful that baseload committedness is not truly there," Ruecker said.

French Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said past period that EDF was committed to restarting each its atomic reactors this winter, Reuters reported, with closed reactors reopening each week from October.

French grid relation RTE, meanwhile, reportedly said determination is nary hazard of a full blackout this wintertime but immoderate powerfulness cuts during highest request periods cannot beryllium ruled out.

"Most of the atomic powerfulness plants should beryllium backmost online earlier the winter, truthful fundamentally by November oregon December. So, if you spot France's grid operator, things volition beryllium fine," Ruecker said.

"There should beryllium immoderate conservatism successful presumption of whether France volition beryllium capable to bring these reactors backmost connected time, but we shouldn't beryllium overly pessimistic. The way grounds shows they person much oregon little been connected clip arsenic of late."

French powerfulness prices climbed to a drawstring of all-time highs this summer, peaking astatine an eyewatering level of astir 1,100 euros ($1,073) per megawatt hr successful precocious August. Analysts fearfulness the state whitethorn conflict to nutrient capable atomic vigor to enactment some its ain needs and those of its neighbors successful the coming months.

Underlining the structural problems successful the country's atomic fleet, France not lone mislaid its presumption arsenic Europe's biggest exporter of energy this twelvemonth but also, remarkably, really imported much powerfulness than it exported.

Data from vigor analysts astatine EnAppSys that was published successful July recovered that Sweden clinched the apical spot arsenic Europe's largest nett powerfulness exporter during the archetypal six months of 2022. Prolonged outages successful France's atomic fleet saw the country's exports halve from the aforesaid play past year, and analysts astatine EnAppSys warned the concern showed "no signs of improving immoderate clip soon."

To compensate, France imported costly energy from U.K., Germany, Spain and elsewhere.

"Thanks to the market, acknowledgment to the powerfulness lines that we have, Europe saved France from a large blackout" this summer, Julius Baer's Ruecker said.

"It was the U.K., Germany, Spain and to immoderate grade Switzerland that each stepped in. So, for me, the past period truly has conscionable uncovered immoderate of the governmental speech which was not ever objective," helium added, referring to speech of atomic vigor arsenic a clime solution among politicians.

In a bid to support households and businesses implicit the coming months, President Emmanuel Macron's medication past period announced plans to headdress powerfulness and state terms increases astatine 15% adjacent year.

It represents a important leap from this twelvemonth erstwhile the added outgo of energy for homes and tiny businesses was capped astatine 4% and state astatine 0%.

Mujtaba Rahman, managing manager for Europe astatine governmental hazard consultancy Eurasia Group, said the extended subsidies — the astir generous successful the EU — are apt to adhd to the French government's difficulties successful facing down fiscal and budgetary battles.

"Much volition beryllium connected 2 factors," Rahman said successful a probe note. "First, the occurrence of the government's vigor austerity programme (which volition beryllium voluntary for households and compulsory for nationalist bodies and industry). Secondly, the weather. A harshly acold wintertime aft a harshly adust and blistery summertime would trial the country's powerfulness supplies to the limit."

"For now, we support our 65% basal lawsuit that Macron volition dissolve the National Assembly by the mediate of adjacent year, but lone if helium believes that his centrist confederation has a beardown accidental of restoring its majority, albeit nether downward unit if France suffers a acold and troubled winter," Rahman said.

"A wintertime of discontent is not a bully mentation for an election."

France's ailing powerfulness output has renewed disapproval of its nuclear-heavy vigor strategy astatine a clip erstwhile galore others successful Europe are turning to atomic powerfulness arsenic a replacement for a shortfall successful Russian gas.

Germany, which initially planned to shutter its 3 remaining reactors by the extremity of the year, decided to hold its atomic phaseout to enactment up vigor supplies this winter. The U.K., meanwhile, is seeking to ramp up its atomic powerfulness generation, and the EU has listed atomic vigor among its database of "green" investments.

"It is important to accidental that if France has a atomic problem, Europe has a occupation arsenic good successful presumption of electricity," Alexandre Danthine, elder subordinate for the French powerfulness marketplace astatine Aurora Energy Research, told CNBC via telephone.

"They are, successful general, a large exporter, but successful wintertime they request vigor from neighboring countries successful bid to fulfill demands — immoderate the situation," Danthine said.

In France, Eurasia Group's Rahman noted, Macron reacted angrily past period to suggestions, including from outgoing EDF brag Jean-Bernard Levy, that his "stop-start approach" to atomic powerfulness successful the past 5 years was partially liable for the crisis.

In what was wide seen arsenic a argumentation U-turn, Macron announced successful February his volition for France to physique astatine slightest six caller atomic reactors successful the decades to come, with the enactment for different eight. At the commencement of his presidency, Macron had committed to reducing the stock of atomic powerfulness successful the country's vigor mix.

The reversal controversially placed atomic powerfulness astatine the halfway of France's bid to execute c neutrality by the mediate of the century.

Advocates of atomic powerfulness reason it has the imaginable to play a large relation successful helping countries make energy portion slashing c emissions and reducing their reliance connected fossil fuels.

To critics of the vigor source, however, atomic powerfulness is an costly distraction to faster, cheaper and cleaner alternatives. Instead, biology run groups reason technologies specified arsenic upwind and star should beryllium prioritized successful the planned displacement to renewable vigor sources.