Global smartphone market to hit decade low in 2023 but Apple could take top spot

Global smartphone shipments this twelvemonth are connected way to beryllium the worst successful a decade, Counterpoint Research said successful a study connected Thursday, arsenic the marketplace is dragged down by the U.S. and China.

However, Apple could go the biggest subordinate successful smartphones this twelvemonth by shipments, arsenic its high-end iPhone income stay resilient, the study added.

Measuring expected demand, shipments are not equivalent to income and correspond the fig of devices that smartphones vendors nonstop to retailers.

Counterpoint Research said it expects smartphone shipments successful 2023 to diminution 6% year-on twelvemonth to 1.15 cardinal devices.

"Asia is 1 of the large hurdles to affirmative growth, arsenic headwinds halt the economical turnaround anticipated for China astatine the commencement of the year, and the broader portion experiences intensifying declines crossed emerging markets," Counterpoint said successful its report.

China's system this twelvemonth has sputtered and not lived up to expectations of a accelerated recovery, portion consumers stay cautious connected spending.

Chinese smartphone purchases, which utilized to mean 450 cardinal devices a twelvemonth astatine their peak, person shrunk to 270 cardinal per twelvemonth — contributing arsenic a large origin down the diminution successful planetary smartphone sales, Karn Chauhan, elder expert astatine Counterpoint Research told CNBC via email.

North America continues to dampen the planetary recovery, with a "disappointing" archetypal fractional of the twelvemonth mounting the portion up for double-digit full-year declines, Counterpoint's study said.

"Despite spot successful the jobs marketplace and ostentation falling, consumers are hesitant to upgrade their devices, pushing replacement rates for the US and globally to grounds highs," the probe steadfast said.

The premium extremity of the marketplace with higher priced devices has remained rather resilient, contempt a autumn successful wide smartphone shipments.

Apple is gearing up to motorboat its adjacent flagship smartphone — the iPhone 15 — successful September. That could springiness the institution a beardown showing going into the extremity of the year, Counterpoint said.

"But we're watching Q4 (fourth quarter) with involvement due to the fact that the iPhone 15 motorboat is simply a model for carriers to bargain high-value customers. And with that large iPhone 12 installed basal up for grabs promos are going to beryllium aggressive, leaving Apple successful a bully spot," Jeff Fieldhack, probe manager for North America astatine Counterpoint Research, said successful a property release.

Chauhan said the expert steadfast expects Apple shipments to beryllium up "marginally" year-on-year, fixed request successful markets similar China and different Asian countries wherever determination is simply a "growing premiumization trend" — meaning that radical are consenting to wage a higher terms for phones.

Apple's iPhone scope helps Apple play successful the premium conception of the smartphone market.

Counterpoint Research said that the U.S. institution could this twelvemonth instrumentality the apical spot globally successful presumption of yearly shipments for the archetypal clip ever. Samsung was the biggest subordinate by marketplace stock successful the 2nd 4th of the year.

"It's the closest Apple's been to the apical spot.  We're talking astir a dispersed that's virtually a fewer days' worthy of sales," Fieldhack said. "Assuming Apple doesn't tally into accumulation problems similar it did past year, it's truly a flip up astatine this point."

Apple has made a propulsion into caller markets, with India being a focal constituent for the institution successful 2023, arsenic it tries to capitalize connected section consumers' appetite for premium devices. The U.S. institution opened its archetypal carnal stores successful India this year, with CEO Tim Cook visiting the country.

Apple's quality to turn successful the marketplace volition besides origin into whether it ends up arsenic the fig 1 smartphone shaper this year, according to Chauhan.

"The reception of the iPhone 15 and maturation successful non-core iPhone markets volition determine if Apple surpasses Samsung astatine the full-year level oregon not," Chauhan told CNBC.