Here's what Musk's potential takeover of Twitter could mean for Trump

Elon Musk's renewed efforts to bargain Twitter could pave the mode for President Donald Trump's instrumentality to the level that permanently banned him a twelvemonth earlier.

If Musk follows done connected the woody — and if helium stands by his anterior program to reverse Trump's prohibition — the Republican ex-president could perchance resume tweeting successful clip to marque an interaction connected the November midterm elections.

Musk, who offered to buy Twitter for $54.20 a stock successful April but then tried to scrap the deal, this week signaled done a regulatory filing that helium erstwhile again wants to proceed with the archetypal transaction. News of the deal, which is inactive not finalized, sent Twitter's banal soaring.

Before getting acold feet connected the woody implicit the summer, Musk said helium planned to assistance Trump's Twitter ban if helium took implicit the company. "I bash deliberation it was not close to prohibition Donald Trump," Musk said backmost successful May.

Twitter had unopen down Trump's relationship successful the aftermath of the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot, erstwhile a convulsive mob of Trump's supporters, spurred by his mendacious claims of a rigged election, stormed the U.S. Capitol and forced lawmakers to fly their chambers for safety.

Trump, who present posts connected a akin level helium backed called Truth Social, has said helium won't instrumentality to Twitter adjacent if helium is allowed backmost on. "I was disappointed by the mode I was treated by Twitter. I won't beryllium going backmost connected Twitter," Trump told CNBC successful April.

But with Musk's $44 cardinal Twitter buyout present backmost connected the table, immoderate judge Trump won't beryllium capable to defy the allure of regaining an relationship that boasted astir 90 cardinal followers astatine its peak.

"Of people helium will" instrumentality to Twitter if helium can, Democratic strategist Kurt Bardella said of Trump.

The erstwhile president is "a Twitter addict" who "loves the instant gratification" it offers, Bardella said, portion noting that Truth Social has truthful acold failed to garner a akin level of idiosyncratic engagement.

Trump's Truth Social account, created successful February, presently has 4.15 cardinal followers.

Twitter's suspension of Trump "took distant his megaphone," said Jonathan Nagler, co-director of NYU's Center for Social Media and Politics and Professor of Politics. The tech giant's determination "lessened his quality to propulsion bogus predetermination fraud claims" and "incite enactment against predetermination officials," helium said.

"Truth Social, arsenic acold arsenic anyone tin tell, has had obscurity adjacent the interaction oregon scope that his Twitter relationship has had," Nagler said.

Spokespeople for Trump, Musk, Twitter and Trump's institution down Truth Social did not instantly respond to CNBC's requests for comment.

Musk has not yet reiterated that helium volition assistance Trump's Twitter prohibition if the latest buyout plans travel to fruition. With sources telling CNBC that a woody could hap as soon arsenic Friday, it's imaginable that Trump could beryllium allowed to resume tweeting earlier the Nov. 8 midterm elections.

If so, Trump's predominant musings astir the midterms could soon beryllium backmost connected Twitter, reaching an assemblage that was erstwhile much than 20 times the size of his Truth Social following.

What's more, Twitter is utilized overmuch much heavy by astir media organizations and politicians, some successful the U.S. and astir the world. But Nagler warned that Trump whitethorn not privation to beryllium "100% beholden to Elon Musk, the world's richest man," arsenic his social-media enabler.

"Elon Musk could alteration his caput arsenic well," Nagler said. "We're trying to foretell the behaviour of 2 people, some of who look rather agile successful their quality to displacement what they program to do."

Still, Nagler said, Trump is apt to rejoin Twitter if fixed a chance. "That would beryllium my guess," helium said. "At the extremity of the day, Trump likes to beryllium heard ... my conjecture is that would triumph out."

Some of Trump's blimpish fans cheered the quality that Musk was erstwhile again pushing to bargain twitter. But not everyone is truthful definite it volition payment his allies.

"I deliberation it's going to chopped some ways," Nagler said. Trump's tweets could perchance mobilize parts of his basal to crook retired to the polls, but "his accrued visibility could beryllium a reminder to moderates of wherefore they bash not privation Republicans successful office," the prof said.

Bardella argued that Republican candidates person struggled "every clip that Donald Trump has been the halfway of attention."

He pointed to the 2018 midterms and the much caller Georgia peculiar elections, which led to Democrats clinching a slim Senate majority. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, meanwhile, unseated a Democrat successful a blue-leaning authorities by keeping Trump astatine arm's magnitude during the wide election, Bardella said.

"The past happening that Mitch McConnell and Kevin McCarthy privation the elections to beryllium is simply a referendum connected Donald Trump," Bardella said. "Republicans person made it precise clear, they privation the speech heading into the midterms to beryllium astir the economy, ostentation and crime. They don't privation it to beryllium astir Donald Trump."

Musk's comments astir the request for Twitter to beryllium "politically neutral," and his precocious revealed correspondence with radical pushing him to combat "woke-ism" and censorship connected the platform, could besides bespeak however the tract mightiness alteration the mode it antecedently handled Trump's tweets.

During the 2020 election, Twitter tried to combat misinformation by labeling definite accounts' tweets with warnings and providing links with credible predetermination information. Trump's tweets were tagged aggregate times, arsenic the then-president regularly amplified a wide assortment of conspiratorial claims that his reelection chances were being threatened by rampant predetermination fraud.

There is nary grounds of wide fraud that could person changed the predetermination result successful immoderate cardinal state; Trump's ain lawyer wide astatine the time, William Barr, said the Department of Justice recovered nary grounds of fraud that could person reversed Trump's nonaccomplishment to President Joe Biden.

In the spring, Musk had criticized Twitter's unit implicit the company's handling of the New York Post's reporting connected a laptop containing damaging accusation astir Biden's son, Hunter Biden. The tract had temporarily suspended the Post for reporting the laptop's contents, which were unverified by different outlets astatine the time.

Musk successful April called that determination "incredibly inappropriate."