How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end

The warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine entered a caller signifier this summertime erstwhile Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and determination were hopes Ukraine would regain the precocious hand.

Instead, its forces are facing a 600-mile beforehand enactment and extended Russian antiaircraft fortifications — successful immoderate places up to 19 miles heavy — that were built successful wintertime portion Ukraine was waiting for much dense weaponry from its allies earlier launching its counteroffensive successful June.

It's go wide that the counteroffensive won't nutrient speedy results and that occurrence — nevertheless that mightiness beryllium measured successful presumption of retaking Russian-occupied territory — is not guaranteed.

Military experts pass that this means the warfare is apt to beryllium prolonged, putting immense unit connected Ukraine to combat for respective much years to come, potentially, and connected its planetary partners to perpetrate billions of dollars much successful military, humanitarian and fiscal resources.

"Ukraine has to amusement it tin marque progress, but everybody knows that, fixed the size of the unit that they have, that they are not going to propulsion each Russian retired of Ukraine successful 2023," retired British General Richard Barrons, the former commander of the U.K.'s Joint Forces Command, told CNBC.

"By the extremity of this year, some sides volition deliberation they inactive person much to summation by fighting. Russia cannot springiness up, it can't lose, due to the fact that of the hopeless consequences for the Russian regime, and Ukraine has not tally retired of the volition to combat and isn't prepared to springiness up the territory that's been occupied, it conscionable wants much assistance to instrumentality it back. And that volition instrumentality america into 2024 and perchance into 2025," helium added.

Ukraine's counteroffensive is apt to marque immoderate advancement successful the remainder of this year, Barrons said — but obscurity adjacent capable to extremity the occupation.

"To immoderate degree, we person to judge that it is simply a impervious of conception that Ukraine tin triumph connected the battlefield. But past it is going to instrumentality this large effort [to proceed to enactment Ukraine] and by large effort, I deliberation we mean astir $100 cardinal a twelvemonth successful full from each its supporters, astatine least, successful 2024 and 2025."

There were hopes that Ukraine's counteroffensive would crook the tide successful its favor, but Russian forces person dug successful on the beforehand enactment spanning eastbound to southbound Ukraine, creating heavy antiaircraft lines that are successful parts made up of networks of mines, bunkers, trenches and layers of anti-tank obstacles.

Since the counteroffensive was launched successful June, lone a fistful of villages person been recaptured. And portion Ukraine's Defense Ministry says its forces person made advances adjacent Bakhmut successful Donetsk successful the east, and person retaken 204.7 quadrate kilometers of territory successful the south, its troops look an immense situation trying to interruption done Russian defenses successful a bid to beforehand southbound toward the larboard cities of Berdyansk and Melitopol connected the Sea of Azov.

Nick Reynolds, probe chap for onshore warfare at the London-based defence and information deliberation vessel RUSI, told CNBC that it should travel arsenic nary astonishment that the counteroffensive is proving difficult.

"The Russian equipped forces were fixed a important accidental successful the archetypal months of this twelvemonth to excavation successful extensively, and if you look astatine the benignant of the standard of the defenses they built up, past these were ever going to beryllium a formidable situation for the Ukrainians to crack, particularly fixed the representation successful the Ukrainian Air Force is not capable to run implicit Russian lines."

One of Ukraine's main aims is to sever the Russian "land bridge" that stretches from Russia and crossed the occupied portion of confederate Ukraine to Crimea, but that's an country wherever Russia's fortifications are among the heaviest.

"Literally, they're [the Ukrainian forces] conscionable moving into the archetypal enactment of defenses now, but that's a 30 kilometer heavy loop of minefields and trenches and antagonistic attacks. From wherever they are present to the oversea is astir 60 miles, and they've made 5 miles truthful far, truthful this is simply a truly large ask," Barrons said.

"The Russian strategy is to instrumentality and clasp connected to the onshore they've occupied and they'll beryllium precise stubborn astir it, believing 2 things: One is that the Ukrainian volition to dice for this conflict for 15% of the state volition deplete erstwhile they commencement to suffer the sorts of numbers that usually travel with an offensive. And secondly, that the West's enthusiasm for paying the measure volition diminution due to the fact that we privation to walk our wealth connected different things."

Defense experts accidental it's improbable the counteroffensive volition spot immoderate breakthroughs this year. But they enactment it's important for Ukraine to beryllium capable to amusement astatine slightest immoderate gains successful bid to support Western enactment for the warfare into 2024 — and possibly beyond.

"Clearly, from a Ukrainian perspective, you've got to astatine slightest person immoderate important successes truthful that you tin spell to NATO and the United States and say, 'Look, guys, atrocious it wasn't arsenic palmy arsenic we wanted it to beryllium but with the weapons you've fixed america ... we've done capable to chopped the Russian forces successful 2 truthful that you tin put successful different extremity successful outpouring 2024, to support anticipation alive,'" Jamie Shea, a erstwhile elder NATO authoritative and planetary defence and information adept astatine deliberation vessel Chatham House, told CNBC.

"I deliberation the information for Ukrainians is if they truly bash extremity up with a stalemate, wherever they've gained very, precise small territory wherever a batch of the instrumentality supplied by the West has been written disconnected with Ukrainians having suffered precise important casualties," Shea said.

That script could embolden critics of the war; summation nationalist discontent with continued backing for Ukraine; and airs a occupation successful presumption of arms accumulation and supplies for the West.

For now, astatine least, Ukraine's allies are lasting firmly beside it, saying they volition enactment it "whatever it takes" portion Russia excessively is "nowhere adjacent giving up," Barrons said.

Meanwhile, immoderate imaginable of bid talks betwixt Russia and Ukraine look slim contempt efforts to bring some sides to the negotiating table.

Senior officials from astir 40 countries, including China, and India, held talks successful Jeddah, Saudi Arabia astatine the weekend with the purpose of agreeing cardinal principles that could underline a aboriginal colony of the war.

Russia was not contiguous astatine the discussions, however, and U.S. National Security Spokesperson John Kirby stated up of the talks that the White House did not expect immoderate "tangible deliverables."

At immoderate point, Ukraine volition person to determine if there's a subject solution to the struggle oregon if it has to look for different mode retired without conceding immoderate benignant of defeat, Barrons said. One mode to bash that is with an armistice, a impermanent statement to cease subject operations, but 1 that does not reason the warfare decisively.

"One result is that this warfare is fought retired due to the fact that Ukraine gets the assistance to bash it. Another result is Ukraine decides to frost the fighting, but we're obscurity adjacent that close now. Then there's a spot successful the mediate where, and this happens to tons of wars, they conscionable get astatine a grudging stalemate and you past glare astatine each different for a generation," helium said, citing Greece and Turkey's struggle implicit Cyprus and North and South Korea arsenic examples of stalemates successful which neither broadside truly wants to reignite a conflict.

While immoderate Western governments volition secretly balk astatine the ongoing costs of supporting Ukraine (the U.S. has already pledged implicit $40 cardinal successful information assistance to Kyiv) galore recognize the precocious stakes, Barrons said.

"They recognize the wider strategical point, which is that this is simply a confrontation betwixt the West and Russia and astatine involvement is not conscionable the aboriginal territorial integrity of Ukraine but the information conception for Europe and the West with Russia," helium noted.

"In an epoch wherever China is watching intimately whether the West has the tummy to basal up for its interests. And successful that strategical context, everyone thinks this volition person to beryllium played retired to the bitter end. In different words, we've got to support lasting down Ukraine ... [but] determination is simply a terms to pay."