How the Swans can snap Cats' streak in GF

2 years ago 139

Geelong is the overwhelming favourite heading into this year's AFL expansive final, having won an unthinkable 15 games successful a enactment en way to the large dance.

Despite Sydney riding its ain nine-game winning streak, Geelong has been the fashionable prime to instrumentality retired this year's premiership.

Bookmakers person the Cats arsenic $1.47 favourites, with the Swans paying $2.62, per SportsBet.

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The Swans are 1 of 4 teams to person beaten the Cats this year, having prevailed by 30 points astatine the SCG successful circular two, the nighttime Lance Franklin breached the 1000-goal barrier.

According to erstwhile AFL manager Ross Lyon, determination are respective boxes the Swans indispensable tick successful bid to topple the Cats connected the biggest signifier of all.

METHOD OF BALL MOVEMENT

Both teams boast elite violative and defence profiles, with Geelong ranking 2nd successful points for and the Swans fourth. The Cats are archetypal successful points against portion the Swans are fourth.

While their rankings offensively are similar, the methods are rather different, arsenic proven by the 2 teams' kick-to-handball ratios and mark-play connected percentages.

The Cats mean 1.3 kicks per handball, portion the Swans person a two-to-one kick-to-handball ratio.

Geelong is much consenting to tally the ball, playing connected from a people 32 per cent of the time, portion the Swans bash truthful aft conscionable 16 per cent of their marks.

"Really simply, they're some truly flying successful onslaught and defence, but they've got antithetic styles with the ball," Lyon told Nine's Footy Classified this week.

"Geelong are a 'go forward' squad now, past twelvemonth they went backmost and sideways.

"They're 1.3 kicks per handball whereas Sydney are 2 to one, they're a kicking squad who controls the ball.

"They're a spot much controlled and methodical and it volition travel successful useful against Geelong's roll-off defence.

"They (Geelong's defenders) get backmost connected you, they privation long, precocious entries (inside 50) and past they counter-punch. Last twelvemonth they'd dilatory chip, but present they propulsion the trigger.

"Sydney are not going to weaponry it successful erstwhile they've got clip and space, they're going to displacement it disconnected the enactment and little their eyes."

TACKLING PRESSURE

Sydney grades highly good successful a fig of cardinal antiaircraft acts, and it'll person to bring its antiaircraft ferocity to the MCG if it's immoderate anticipation of beating the Cats.

In Geelong's 4 losses this year, their opponents person had a unit origin of 185, portion that fig drops to 177 successful games Geelong has win. For comparison, the Swans person averaged a unit origin of 187 passim the season, which suggests they'll beryllium capable to bring the heat.

Sydney's unit origin is the champion successful the league and it besides ranks favourably in tackle differential (third), tackle ratio (first), post-clearance unit origin (first) and forward-half unit origin (fifth).

Spend clip dawdling connected the shot and the Swans tacklers volition simply devour you. The expansive last volition lone heighten their hunger to get the footy backmost erstwhile they suffer possession.

"This is wherefore Sydney volition person belief, they're the No.1 unit squad successful the comp," Lyon said.

"In each aspects they tin pressure. If you're John Longmire, you're saying, 'Don't interest astir what Collingwood did, this is what we tin do'.

"The numbers accidental it: the teams that person brought vigor to the Cats, the Cats are 50 per cent win-loss."

TRANSITION GAME

Sydney isn't the lone squad that volition bring the unit either, with the Cats capable to crook it up with the champion of them, peculiarly successful their ain guardant half.

While the duplicate towers Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins person rightly received a batch of the plaudits, Geelong besides possesses an elite radical of tiny forwards successful Gryan Miers, Tyson Stengle and Brad Close.

Lyon says the trio's unit volition person to beryllium astatine their champion to halt the Swans' lethal modulation crippled disconnected halfback.

Teams who don't person dependable forward-half unit person been chopped up each twelvemonth by the Swans' halfbacks and wingers. If you basal astir arsenic a forward, the likes of Nick Blakey and Errol Gulden volition wreak havoc going the different way.

"No 1 bounces disconnected halfback amended than the Swans," Lyon said.

"If they tin get their tally and their footwear going done the corridor, they are hard to stop. But what bash we cognize astir the Cats' tiny forwards? Sure, they footwear goals, but they're the No.1 chase-down tacklers successful the AFL with Close, Stengle and Miers."

KEEPING STEWART BUSY

Tom Stewart is the AFL's intercept king, and he's capable to wreak havoc successful Geelong's antiaircraft 50 owed to a astute quirk Chris Scott seems to deploy successful matches.

Geelong's preliminary last demolition occupation against Brisbane was the cleanable illustration of this, arsenic Scott rolled Mark Blicavs into the ruck successful stoppages astir the crushed portion moving first-choice ruckman Rhys Stanley down the football.

Stanley went consecutive for the antheral Stewart would usually beryllium tasked with defending, Brisbane's Joe Daniher, which allowed Stewart to roam escaped astir arsenic a goal-keeper.

Sydney's forwards volition person to beryllium diligent successful ensuring Stewart needs to absorption connected the antiaircraft broadside of the shot alternatively than simply launching counter-attacks.

"Horse (Swans manager John Longmire) has typically been much conservative, Chris Scott volition propulsion a small spot much astatine you," Lyon said of the 2 coaches' approach.

It volition beryllium absorbing to spot what tactical wrinkle Scott throws Longmire's mode successful the opening 4th oregon so, and however agelong it takes for the Swans to adjust.

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