How Wagner's short-lived mutiny could shape the direction of Russia's war in Ukraine

Ukrainian forces tin look to instrumentality vantage of the Wagner Group's short-lived equipped rebellion, analysts said, with disorder among Russia's subject enactment expected to considerably weaken their warfare effort.

A weekend of mayhem has near observers of Russia's full-scale penetration of Ukraine questioning what could hap next. The bonzer 24-hour play posed what galore respect arsenic the top situation to Russian President Vladimir Putin's grip connected powerfulness successful his more-than 2 decades of rule.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious brag of the Wagner backstage militia group, launched an evident insurrection implicit the weekend, sending an armored convoy toward the Russian capital.

The rebellion was abruptly called disconnected precocious Saturday, however, successful a woody brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. Prigozhin agreed to de-escalate the concern and ordered his fighters advancing connected Moscow to instrumentality to their bases.

John Barranco, the 2021-2022 elder U.S. Marine Corps chap astatine the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, said the Wagner rebellion could not person travel astatine a amended clip for Ukraine.

"Whatever Prigozhin's existent motivations are, oregon the result of his revolt and past evident about-face, a fewer things stay clear: Massive amounts of disorder person been sown successful Russia's rear area, and immoderate assurance fertile and record Russian soldiers had near successful their enactment is gone," helium said successful a blog post.

A spokesperson for Russia's overseas ministry was not instantly disposable to remark erstwhile contacted by CNBC.

Barranco said that erstwhile an service loses assurance successful its leadership, morale falls done the level — and the volition to combat often goes with it.

Describing Wagner arsenic what had been Russia's astir effectual portion successful Ukraine, Barranco said the mercenary radical volition astir surely beryllium disbanded and it was not yet wide whether its fighters volition beryllium absorbed into the Russian army.

Tony Brenton, erstwhile British ambassador to Russia, agreed that the Wagner mercenary radical had been the astir effectual constituent of Russia's subject successful Ukraine to date.

"The information that, apparently, Prigozhin is present retired of [the war] and possibly Wagner is besides retired of it volition weaken Russia's show connected the battlefield," Brenton told CNBC's "Street Signs Europe" connected Monday.

Ultimately, Barranco said the caller crook of events is apt to supply Ukraine's subject enactment with thing of an accidental aft much than 16 months of fighting. He said the champion accidental for a palmy Ukrainian counteroffensive would beryllium to question to unit Russian forces backmost from their 600 miles of layered warring positions successful the country.

"It is improbable adjacent the astir audacious among the Ukrainian subject enactment ever envisioned launching an onslaught connected Russia's Southern Military District office successful Rostov-on-Don, wherever Russia's warfare successful Ukraine is being run, but that is precisely what the Wagner Group's abrupt rebellion has done," Barranco said.

A erstwhile state of Russia's long-time president and a antheral known arsenic "Putin's chef," Prigozhin said via Telegram connected Saturday that helium was prepared to spell "all the way" against Russia's subject and rejected Putin's halfway justification for invading Ukraine successful Feb. 2022.

In return, Putin vowed to crush what helium described arsenic an equipped mutiny, accusing Prigozhin of "treason" successful a televised address.

The Wagner rebellion was thought to person travel wrong conscionable 200 kilometers (120 miles) of Moscow earlier Prigozhin made the abrupt determination to abort the mission.

The rebel leader's unceremonious exile to Belarus came successful speech for calling disconnected the insurrection.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Sunday that things were "moving successful the close direction" aft helium discussed events successful Russia and Ukraine with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.

"We hold that the state authorities are anemic and that withdrawing state troops from Ukraine is the champion prime for the kremlin," Reznikov said connected Twitter.

The Institute for the Study of War, however, said that the quality of Russian forces to behaviour some violative and antiaircraft operations successful Ukraine had not been "substantially impacted" by the Wagner Group's rebellion implicit the weekend.

Asked whether this latest occurrence could substance interest implicit the information of Moscow's atomic arsenal, Brenton said that the likelihood of atomic weapons being deployed successful Ukraine was "pretty adjacent to zero."

"Don't worry, I deliberation the likelihood of that inactive remains precise low," Brenton said. "I don't spot the level of governmental instability successful Russia arsenic thing similar astatine the level wherever existent civilian warfare [or] a existent breakout of bid that you commencement worrying astir atomic weapons falling into the incorrect hands."

However, Brenton noted that Putin has antecedently said helium whitethorn beryllium consenting to edifice to utilizing atomic weapons and this imaginable could travel to the fore if Russia's full-scale penetration goes existentially wrong.

"It isn't going existentially incorrect yet. If it does, I deliberation determination is simply a information of that," Brenton said. "Let's anticipation that we don't extremity up successful that situation."