In 5 key battlegrounds, most GOP state legislative nominees are election deniers, report finds

Nearly 6 successful 10 Republican authorities legislature nominees successful 5 cardinal battleground states deny the results of the 2020 election, according to an investigation by a radical tracking the races.

Of those 450 Republican nominees — including incumbents moving for re-election and nonincumbents — successful Nevada, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan and Minnesota, 58% of them person echoed erstwhile President Donald Trump's lies that the 2020 predetermination was stolen from him, according to probe shared exclusively with NBC News by The States Project, a left-leaning radical that tracked authorities legislative races successful battleground states.

Experts pass that if capable of these election-denying nominees are elected, Republican majorities successful the authorities houses of these important battlegrounds could person the powerfulness to rewrite predetermination laws and impact aboriginal elections, including successful 2024 erstwhile Trump mightiness tally again.

"When predetermination deniers are successful control, they volition bash immoderate they tin to undermine escaped and just elections," said Daniel Squadron, The States Project's enforcement director.

"We cognize that the rules for elections and determining the winners are acceptable done the legislative process, truthful what these folks bash would person tremendous impact" connected "everything from who tin registry and who tin ballot to however the results are counted," Squadron added.

Those 5 states (and many others) besides diagnostic predetermination deniers arsenic the Republican nominees successful races for politician and caput of authorities — offices that person the power to oversee, administer and certify elections. If predetermination deniers successful those races win, their quality to impact aboriginal elections could beryllium made much robust by having cooperative predetermination deniers successful their authorities houses to assistance propulsion authorities remaking definite predetermination laws successful those states.

"People who person specified utmost views astir the past predetermination mightiness propulsion for changes to the voting process that would some marque it harder to ballot for eligible voters and marque it overmuch harder to administer elections," said elections adept Rick Pildes, a New York University School of Law professor.

Pildes pointed to assorted proposals successful states similar Arizona and Nevada that would mandate counting ballots by manus and chopped backmost connected mail-in and absentee voting. Kari Lake, Arizona's Republican nominee for governor, suggested past play that she would enactment efforts to curtail aboriginal voting if elected.

Since Jan. 1, 2021, lawmakers successful 21 states person passed astatine slightest 42 laws that diagnostic voting restrictions, according to the nonpartisan Brennan Center for Justice astatine New York University School of Law.

Twenty-four bills that interfere with predetermination medication person already been signed into instrumentality crossed 17 states successful 2022, with hundreds much introduced, according to the nonpartisan States United Democracy Center. Many of the astir terrible proposals could let authorities lawmakers to much easy overturn predetermination results, similar bills successful Arizona, Pennsylvania and Michigan that would give legislators immoderate oregon full control over predetermination outcomes. Others would let the partisan bulk successful a state legislature to behaviour predetermination audits or to person much powerfulness to taxable their ain electors (though experts similar Pildes person suggested specified proposals mightiness beryllium yet deemed unconstitutional).

The imaginable interaction that authorities legislatures could person connected elections moving guardant could grow adjacent further, depending connected however the Supreme Court rules adjacent twelvemonth connected a major elections-related case. The case, Moore v. Harper, chiefly revolves astir Republicans seeking to bounds the powerfulness of authorities courts to reappraisal gerrymandered maps and restrictions connected voting. But if the justices clasp a blimpish ineligible mentation — known arsenic the independent authorities legislature theory — successful their ruling, it could person the effect of granting to authorities legislatures the sole powerfulness to acceptable elections rules and provisions successful the states.

Trump's supporters advocated that presumption during disputes implicit the 2020 statesmanlike election, saying authorities courts had nary authorization to modify the rules for casting ballots by mail. Those arguments did not prevail, but astatine slightest 4 members of the U.S. Supreme Court recovered them to person immoderate appeal.

The tribunal is acceptable to perceive arguments successful that lawsuit successful December.

How captious battlegrounds similar Arizona, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan tally their aboriginal elections could precise good find the victor of aboriginal statesmanlike races.

"State legislatures person a batch of discretion wrong the rules that national instrumentality imposes connected however to modulate the predetermination process — and determination are galore reasons, based connected [what] immoderate of the candidates successful these states person said, to interest astir however that discretion whitethorn beryllium used," Pildes said.

"These are captious statesmanlike plaything states, wherever razor-thin margins find winners," Squadron added.

In its analysis, The States Project, a Democratic radical that focuses connected winning authorities elections, defined an predetermination denier arsenic a nominee who questioned oregon denied the results of the 2020 election. In making its determinations, the radical reviewed the nationalist comments, societal media posts and argumentation pledges by each Republican authorities legislative nominee successful Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

The group's investigation recovered that predetermination deniers were astir prevalent successful Arizona authorities legislative races, wherever they made up 87% of each Republican nominees successful those races. 

Among them are authorities Sen. Wendy Rogers and authorities Rep. Jake Hoffman, who have called for their state's 2020 elections results to be decertified, and authorities Senate campaigner Justine Wadsack, who has expressed enactment for QAnon-pushed conspiracy theories.

Hoffman was besides among a fistful of alleged fake electors successful the state who signed documents asserting they were their state's rightful electors and that Trump — not Joe Biden — had won the state.

In some Pennsylvania and Michigan, 62% of each Republican authorities legislative nominees successful each authorities were predetermination deniers, the radical found.

That included astatine slightest 8 Michigan authorities Senate candidates oregon incumbents who'd signed various letters or briefs that had sought to overturn the 2020 results successful the authorities oregon hold the certification of the results.

In Minnesota, 42% of each Republican nominees successful authorities legislative races were predetermination deniers, portion successful Nevada, 31% were. That included respective incumbents and candidates in Minnesota who'd who had questioned or challenged the results of the 2020 election.

"We person bully crushed to interest astir the integrity of the [electoral] process astatine each level and a superior interest among those worries is what authorities legislatures mightiness do," Pildes said.

Adam Edelman is simply a governmental newsman for NBC News.