India is a rising force in Southeast Asia as region seeks to counter China's dominance

India is taking large strides to grow its power successful Southeast Asia, a determination that volition let countries to antagonistic China's dominance successful the region.

"India surely is becoming much ambitious successful Southeast Asia. There is nary uncertainty astir it," said Harsh V. Pant, vice president for studies and overseas argumentation astatine Observer Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based deliberation tank.

It has besides go "more forceful and much upfront" astir its ties with the region, helium added.

Growing rivalry betwixt India and China is seen arsenic influencing New Delhi's strategical calculation successful strengthening its presence.

For a agelong time, Indian leaders had been "hesitant and reticent" astir the country's relation successful the region, owed to its ain tensions with China on the Himalayan border, noted Pant.

Relations person been fraught since a borderline clash with Chinese forces successful 2020, which killed astatine slightest 20 Indian soldiers, according to the Indian army.

"I deliberation the knowing successful New Delhi had been: Let's not wade into waters wherever China mightiness beryllium much uncomfortable," Pant told CNBC, adding that Beijing has "enormous imaginable to make occupation for India."

Since China hasn't "budged" connected the borderline issue, India "now feels determination has been nary existent instrumentality for its cautious cognition towards Southeast Asia," helium added. 

India's overseas ministry did not respond to CNBC's petition for comment.

In June, India's outer affairs curate Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, highlighted the borderline struggle was affecting relations betwixt the 2 countries.

Until Sino-India relations execute "some consciousness of normalcy," Pant said, New Delhi has fewer options but to ramp up ties with countries — "big oregon tiny astir China's periphery, to guarantee it has immoderate leverage."

In caller months, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's authorities has stepped up its outreach to determination countries aimed astatine balancing Beijing's aggression.

The determination reinforces India's ongoing comprehensive strategical concern with Southeast Asia.  

In June, New Delhi said it was giving a naval warship to Vietnam, successful the latest motion of increasing defence ties betwixt some nations, said Satoru Nagao, non-resident chap astatine Hudson Institute, based successful Tokyo.

"India besides trains pilots and crushed unit of combatant jets of the Vietnam Air Force. Indian naval ships visited Vietnam constantly," helium added.

Vietnam is present readying to bargain supersonic missiles and surface-to-air missiles from India, said Nagao, who specializes successful defence strategy, overseas argumentation and information alliances.

"India's 'Look East' policy began successful 1991, good earlier China's increasing assertiveness was a existent occupation successful Southeast Asia," said Derek Grossman, a elder defence expert astatine the Rand Corporation.

"But by 2014, erstwhile Modi turned the argumentation into 'Act East,' it was evident that the portion and satellite was dealing with a antithetic benignant of China — Xi's China — which sought to flex its powerfulness much often and farther from Chinese shores," helium said referring to Chinese person Xi Jinping.

India caused a disturbance successful precocious June erstwhile its overseas curate and his Filipino counterpart, Enrique Manalo, issued a associated statement, urging China to abide by The Hague's 2016 arbitration decision connected the South China Sea.

The associated connection sparked speculation that New Delhi was shifting away from its neutral posture connected competing territorial claims successful the region.

In a landmark ruling connected the South China Sea dispute, the international tribunal successful The Hague unanimously ruled successful favour of the Philippines successful a historical lawsuit against China.

China has rejected the 2016 ruling, describing it arsenic "illegal and void."

Beijing claims astir the full South China Sea — an assertion that is rejected by Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and the Philippines among others, successful competing claims for the resource-rich waterway.

India "is bolstering strategical ties — diplomatic, economic, and information — to Southeast Asian states to assistance them equilibrium oregon hedge against, oregon outright antagonistic Chinese power," said Rand's Grossman.

"This is peculiarly salient to the maritime sphere, namely the South China Sea, wherever overlapping sovereignty disputes endanger determination stableness and openness," helium added.

China's expanding power done its Belt and Road Initiative successful Southeast Asia is besides driving India's calculation, according to Joanne Lin, co-coordinator of the ASEAN Studies Centre astatine ISEAS, astatine Yusof Ishak Institute successful Singapore.

As a result, "safeguarding India's security, particularly maritime information volition beryllium important," Lin added.

Most countries successful the portion person supported China's mega infrastructure project — Xi's signature argumentation inaugural aimed astatine expanding Beijing's power done a web of road, obstruction and oversea connections crossed Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Observers enactment Beijing's much strident overseas policy, coupled with the governmental and economical leverage it could exert done the Belt and Road, has raised concerns successful the region.

Readjusting to an evolving planetary bid defined chiefly by the China-U.S. rivalry has besides proven peculiarly challenging for Southeast Asian countries. 

Regional countries are "engaging India due to the fact that it is simply a powerfulness successful its ain right," noted Prashanth Parameswaran, a chap astatine the Wilson Center and laminitis of the play ASEAN Wonk newsletter.

They spot India arsenic an "important portion of a broader strategy of shaping a much multipolar bid alternatively than 1 that is centered astir China oregon dominated by U.S.-China bipolar competition," helium added.

A regional survey published by the ASEAN Studies Centre astatine the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute showed India's lasting has improved greatly among Southeast Asian nations, contempt its neutral stance successful Russia's warfare against Ukraine. 

"India is the 3rd apical enactment for the portion successful hedging against the uncertainties of the US-China rivalry. Its ranking much than doubled from the past spot successful 2022 to the 3rd spot this year," said ISEAS's Lin, 1 of the authors of the survey. 

Observers accidental that New Delhi besides offers "a mode out" for countries that question to stay neutral successful the U.S.-China conflict. 

"India is not a campy follower of either side," said Pant from New Delhi's Observer Research Foundation. "It continues to support a precise autarkic streak successful its overseas policy, which suits a ample fig of Southeast Asian countries."

While China remained the astir influential and strategical powerfulness successful Southeast Asia, its lasting has diminished, the Southeast Asia survey from February showed.

China's power declined importantly to 41.5% successful 2023 from 54.4% successful 2022, arsenic countries grew much wary of Beijing.

For respective states that "most distrust China successful the portion — namely the Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Singapore," India is "an further spouse to assistance antagonistic Beijing," noted Rand's Grossman.

Still, New Delhi's latest moves to deepen determination ties won't spell unnoticed by Chinese leaders, analysts noted.

China volition beryllium "cautious" astir the developments, said Lin from ISEAS. "India's increasing power successful Southeast Asia and enhanced defence cooperation," among different issues "will origin unease successful Beijing," she added.

Pant noted: "China volition beryllium watching this cautiously and sending its ain messages out."

But fixed Southeast Asia "is a cardinal pillar to India's ain Indo-Pacific strategy," that volition not deter New Delhi," helium added. "India's propulsion into the portion volition lone proceed to stitchery momentum."