India's military relationship with Russia isn't going away — it'll 'endure for decades,' analyst says

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi whitethorn person publically rebuked Russian President Vladimir Putin implicit the warfare successful Ukraine, but the longstanding relationship betwixt the 2 countries isn't going away, analysts said.

"Today's epoch is not an epoch of war, and I person spoken to you connected the telephone astir this," Modi said to Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin successful a televised gathering astatine the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) successful Samarkand, Uzbekistan, 2 weeks ago.

That marked a displacement successful code from the aboriginal days of the war, erstwhile India was seen arsenic unwilling to knock Russia, fixed its abstention from a U.N. ballot censuring the state for the invasion, among different things.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, for his part, claimed that Russia and India were "friends," a period aft Ukraine was invaded.

But contempt India's evident alteration successful stance implicit the war, India inactive needs Russia, analysts told CNBC.

"India is successful a unsocial presumption wherever it needs Russia successful the abbreviated word to negociate China," said Harsh V. Pant, vice president of studies and overseas argumentation astatine Observer Research Foundation, a Delhi-based deliberation tank.

Pant added that India needs the West implicit the agelong word successful handling its relations with China, citing the second arsenic "the astir important strategical challenger for India."

China and India person been locked successful a two-year-long borderline quality successful the Himalayas, though troops from some sides person precocious started disengaging from the occidental side. But some inactive had thousands of soldiers lined up on the de facto border, known arsenic the Line of Actual Control (LAC).

The aboriginal of China and India's narration is going to beryllium a hard one, said Raymond Vickery, a elder subordinate astatine the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

At a regular Indian Foreign Office quality briefing successful August, the spokesperson affirmed that India's policies are "consistent" and "do not necessitate reiteration," erstwhile asked astir Delhi's attack to the "One China" policy.

"In addition, there's a full Belt and Road Initiative, which is designed truly to springiness China power implicit the Indo-Pacific eventually," Vickery said.

The BRI is China's ambitious programme to physique carnal and integer infrastructure to link hundreds of countries from Asia to the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Critics see it Chinese President Xi Jinping's signature overseas argumentation to grow his country's planetary influence.

During the caller SCO meeting, India refrained from reaffirming enactment for China's BRI.

Russia is simply a pivotal subject spouse and main arms supplier to India, analysts said.

"The bulk of India's accepted weapons are sourced from Russia," said Sameer Lalwani, a elder adept astatine the U.S. Institute of Peace. "[This] means that it relies heavy connected Russia for unit sustainment including spares, maintenance, and upgrades for years.

According to information steadfast Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, India was the top importer of Russian arms from 2017 to 2021, and Russian instrumentality made up 46% of India's arms imports. 

Though it's a acold outcry from the 80% fig during the Cold War, it inactive reflects India's "big dependence" connected Russia, said Pant, particularly fixed that tensions betwixt India and China implicit the LAC are inactive "very active."

"Russia remains India's astir important [military] partner," helium added.

India besides increased its acquisition of Russian oil pursuing the Kremlin's penetration of Ukraine, benefiting from discounted rates.

India's longstanding relationship with Russia isn't going distant — and that's acknowledgment to its subject dependence, according to Lalwani.

"Even portion India seeks greater indigenization of its defence capabilities, absent a stunning and financially exorbitant overhaul of its unit structure, it volition proceed to beryllium connected Russian arms, munitions, and subcomponents for decades," said Lalwani.

He added that India's exports of cruise missiles to Southeast Asian states cannot relation without Russian propulsion systems.

"Even if the India-Russia subject narration is connected the downswing, it volition inactive endure for decades."