Insana: Tune out the forecasters. Here’s how investors should approach this bear market

Economists, Wall Street analysts, hedge money managers and nationalist prognosticators person been each implicit the representation lately successful trying to divine the ways of Wall Street.

Some person suggested the marketplace has already bottomed and the carnivore marketplace is over.

Others are calling for different 20% diminution successful the S&P 500, which is down astir 20% successful 2022.

Still others are forecasting a implicit illness that would beryllium worse than 2000-2003 oregon 2007-2009.

Some analysts are doing the mathematics besides connected projected reductions successful net for the S&P 500, giving a scope for the market to bottom between 3,000 and 3,400 sometime betwixt present and 2023, but those estimates are each rather varied arsenic well.

It's a chaotic clip successful the forecasting assemblage these days, erstwhile it comes to markets, the Federal Reserve, the absorption of the system and each the attendant risks going forward.

There is simply a amended and simpler mode to presumption this carnivore marketplace successful stocks.

First, determination are nary meaningful affirmative signs that it's over.

Second, respective criteria indispensable beryllium met for a caller cyclical oregon secular bull marketplace to begin:

1. The Fed indispensable implicit its tightening cycle.
2. Technical factors request a re-test of the June lows.
3. That momentum debased (June) is often followed by a terms debased (TBD) earlier the marketplace tin bottom.
4. The VIX should spike to supra 40 arsenic motion of capitulation among the past of the bulls.

None of those criteria person yet been met.

The Fed is still raising rates, apt by different 0.75 percent constituent erstwhile it delivers its determination connected involvement rates adjacent week.

Some notable economists expect the Fed volition jack up rates by a afloat point.

Fed speakers have indicated they're willing to rise rates further and — astatine slightest theoretically — support them elevated passim 2023. This isn't fertile crushed for a caller bull market.

We besides person yet to retest the lows.

The VIX, oregon alleged "fear gauge," a volatility measurement of the markets has not seen the panic levels usually associated with a capitulation bottom.

It is, indeed, a alternatively unusual improvement that assorted volatility readings successful stocks, bonds and commodities similar lipid are not moving successful lockstep, contempt precise choky correlations successful their respective terms actions.

I person yet to perceive a bully mentation arsenic to wherefore the equity marketplace VIX is depressed comparative to the realized volatility successful the banal market.

That makes maine interest that this carnivore marketplace is not implicit yet.

Noted method expert John Bollinger schooled maine agelong agone connected the bottoming process.

A momentum debased hits the marketplace first, followed by a consequent "bear marketplace rally" (or rallies) and yet a terms low, erstwhile the cardinal averages instrumentality retired the momentum debased by a tiny magnitude and past statesman to reverse course.

A catalyst of immoderate benignant usually triggers the opening stages of a caller bull market.

In short, there's a large woody of chirping going connected close present among the chattering class, overmuch of of it is noisy and imprecise.

A simpler and much straightforward investigation is called for here, comparative to the jawboning successful which galore are presently engaged.

Simply put, conscionable each the aforementioned criteria and commencement again.

Less noise, much history: A elemental acquisition successful a alternatively analyzable environment.

In the meantime, semipermanent investors should instrumentality to their disciplines and instrumentality vantage of a carnivore marketplace that 1 time volition travel to a alternatively "unexpected" and "unforeseen" end.

 — Ron Insana is simply a CNBC contributor and a elder advisor astatine Schroders.