Looming auto workers strike could cost $5 billion in just 10 days, new analysis says

DETROIT – If the United Auto Workers national decides to strike against Detroit's Big Three automakers erstwhile existent labour contracts expire adjacent month, the economical effect would rapidly tally into the billions, according to a report released Thursday.

A enactment stoppage by astir 150,000 UAW workers astatine General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis would effect successful an economical nonaccomplishment of much than $5 cardinal aft 10 days, according to Anderson Economic Group, a Michigan-based consulting steadfast that intimately tracks specified events.

AEG estimates the full economical nonaccomplishment by calculating imaginable losses to UAW workers, the manufacturers and to the car manufacture much broadly if the sides cannot scope tentative agreements earlier the existent contracts expire astatine 11:59 p.m. ET connected Sept. 14.

"Consumer and trader losses are typically somewhat insulated successful the lawsuit of a precise abbreviated strike," said Tyler Theile, vice president astatine AEG. "However, with existent inventories hovering astir lone 55 days, the manufacture looks antithetic than it did during the past UAW strike."

During the past circular of bargaining successful 2019, a breakdown successful negotiations betwixt the Detroit automakers and the UAW led to a nationalist 40-day onslaught against GM. The automaker said the onslaught outgo it about $3.6 cardinal that year successful earnings

In past negotiating periods, the UAW has selected a pb institution of the Big Three and targeted archetypal corporate bargaining efforts, including the menace of striking, there. But the caller national leadership, already much assertive than successful caller history, hasn't promised to bounds specified efforts to 1 automaker, leaving each 3 much vulnerable.

"This is simply a antithetic twelvemonth than 2019," AEG CEO Patrick Anderson said Thursday during a webinar with the Automotive Press Association. "It's a antithetic situation now."

UAW President Shawn Fain during a Facebook Live lawsuit Tuesday reaffirmed that the expirations of the contracts are deadlines, not suggestions. He said the national has nary plans to widen the existent contracts to let for bargaining to proceed without a strike, which was antecedently communal practice.

Effects for the companies would alteration based connected their U.S. operations and employees.

GM losses would beryllium $380 cardinal done a 10-day strike, according to AEG. That compares to estimates of $325 cardinal for Ford and $285 cardinal interaction connected Stellantis.

AEG's estimates bash not see UAW onslaught wage oregon assessments for onslaught pay, unemployment benefits oregon unemployment taxes, income taxes connected wages and different imaginable effects specified arsenic colony bonuses.

The study from AEG comes a time aft RBC Capital suggested the imaginable effect of a onslaught connected the automakers whitethorn beryllium "overblown." In an capitalist note, expert Tom Narayan argues GM's "sharp snapback" aft the 2019 enactment stoppage "suggests a akin lawsuit could beryllium manageable."

However, the onslaught 4 years agone was lone against 1 automaker, not each three. A simultaneous onslaught would apt origin ripple effects much quickly, particularly for embattled suppliers that are inactive attempting to retrieve from little accumulation caused by proviso concatenation issues.