'Losing is not an option': Russia analysts fear a 'desperate' Putin as Ukraine war drags on

When Russia invaded Ukraine successful February, cipher successful President Vladimir Putin's interior ellipse is believed to person expected the warfare to past much than a fewer months.

As the upwind turns acold erstwhile again, and backmost to the freezing and muddy conditions that Russia's invading forces experienced astatine the commencement of the conflict, Moscow faces what's apt to beryllium months much fighting, subject losses and imaginable defeat.

That, Russian governmental analysts say, volition beryllium catastrophic for Putin and the Kremlin, who person banked Russia's planetary superior connected winning the warfare against Ukraine. They told CNBC that anxiousness was rising successful Moscow implicit however the warfare was progressing.

"Since September, I spot a batch of changes [in Russia] and a batch of fears," Tatiana Stanovaya, a nonresident student astatine the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and laminitis and caput of political analysis steadfast R.Politik, told CNBC.

"For the archetypal clip since the warfare started radical are opening to see the worst lawsuit scenario, that Russia tin lose, and they don't spot and don't recognize however Russia tin get retired from this struggle without being destroyed. People are precise anxious, they judge that what is going connected is simply a disaster," she said Monday.

Putin has tried to region himself from a bid of humiliating defeats connected the battlefield for Russia, archetypal with the withdrawal from the Kyiv portion successful bluish Ukraine, past the withdrawal from Kharkiv successful northeastern Ukraine and recently, the withdrawal from a chunk of Kherson successful confederate Ukraine, a portion that Putin had said was Russia's "forever" lone six weeks earlier the retreat. Needless to say, that latest withdrawal darkened the temper adjacent among the astir ardent Putin supporters.

Those seismic events successful the warfare person besides been accompanied by smaller but important losses of look for Russia, specified arsenic the onslaught connected the Crimean span linking the Russian mainland to the Ukrainian peninsula annexed by Russia successful 2014, attacks connected its Black Sea Fleet successful Crimea and the withdrawal from Snake Island.

Pro-Kremlin commentators and subject bloggers person lambasted Russia's subject bid for the bid of defeats portion astir person been cautious not to knock Putin directly, a unsafe determination successful a state wherever criticizing the warfare (or "special subject operation" arsenic the Kremlin calls it) tin onshore radical successful prison.

Another Russian expert said Putin is progressively hopeless not to suffer the war.

"The precise information that Russia is inactive waging this war, contempt its evident defeats successful March [when its forces withdrew from Kyiv], bespeak that Putin is hopeless to not lose. Losing is not an enactment for him," Ilya Matveev, a governmental idiosyncratic and world formerly based successful St. Petersburg, told CNBC Monday.

"I deliberation that already everyone, including Putin, realized that adjacent tactical atomic weapons volition not lick the occupation for Russia. They cannot conscionable halt [the] subject advances of [the] Ukrainian army, it's impossible. Tactical weapons ... cannot decisively alteration [the] concern connected the ground."

Putin is wide seen to person misjudged planetary enactment for Ukraine going successful to the war, and has looked progressively fallable — and susceptible — arsenic the struggle drags connected and losses mount.

Ukraine says implicit 88,000 Russian troops person been killed since the warfare started connected Feb. 24, though the existent fig is hard to verify fixed the chaotic quality of signaling deaths. For its part, Russia has seldom published its mentation of Russian fatalities but the fig is acold lower. In September, Russia's defence curate said astir 6,000 of its troops had been killed successful Ukraine.

"From the infinitesimal connected 24th of February, Putin launched this war, helium has go much susceptible than helium has ever been," R. Politik's Stanovaya said.

"Every measurement makes him much and much vulnerable. In fact, successful [the] agelong term, I don't spot a script wherever helium could beryllium a winner. There is nary script wherever helium tin win. In immoderate ways, we tin accidental that helium is politically doomed," she said Monday.

"Of course, if tomorrow, let's ideate immoderate phantasy that Zelenskyy says, 'OK, we person to capitulate, we motion each the demands by Russia,' past successful this lawsuit we tin accidental that Putin tin person a small accidental to reconstruct his enactment wrong of Russia, but it volition not happen."

"We tin expect caller failures, caller setbacks," she said.

While the warfare has surely not gone Moscow's mode truthful acold — it's believed that Putin's subject commanders had led the president to judge that the warfare would lone past a mates of weeks and that Ukraine would beryllium easy overwhelmed — Russia has surely inflicted monolithic harm and destruction.

Many villages, towns and cities person been shelled relentlessly, sidesplitting civilians and destroying civilian infrastructure and prompting millions of radical to fly the country.

For those that person stayed, the caller Russian strategy of wide bombing of vigor infrastructure crossed the state has made for highly hostile surviving conditions with powerfulness blackouts a regular occurrence arsenic good arsenic wide vigor and h2o shortages, conscionable arsenic temperatures plummet.

Russia has launched much than 16,000 missiles attacks connected Ukraine since the commencement its invasion, Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Monday, with 97% of these strikes aimed astatine civilian targets, helium said via Twitter.

Russia has acknowledged deliberately targeting vigor infrastructure but has repeatedly denied targeting civilian infrastructure specified arsenic residential buildings, schools and hospitals. These kinds of buildings person been struck by Russian missiles and drones connected aggregate occasions passim the war, however, starring to civilian deaths and injuries.

As wintertime sets in, governmental and subject analysts person questioned what volition hap successful Ukraine, whether we volition spot a past propulsion earlier a play of stalemate sets in, oregon whether the existent attritional battles, with neither broadside making ample advances continues.

One portion of Ukraine, namely the country astir Bakhmut successful eastbound Ukraine, wherever fierce warring has been taking spot for weeks, has precocious been likened to the Battle of Verdun successful World War I with Russian and Ukrainian troops inhabiting boggy, flooded trenches and the scarred scenery is reminiscent of the warring connected the Western Front successful France a period ago.

Putin is improbable to beryllium deterred by immoderate warfare of attrition, analysts note.

"As I spot Putin, helium would not springiness up. He would not cull his archetypal goals successful this war. He believes and volition judge successful Ukraine that volition springiness up 1 day, truthful helium volition not measurement back," R.Politik's Stanovaya said, adding that this leaves lone 2 scenarios for however the warfare mightiness end.

"This archetypal 1 is that the authorities successful Ukraine changes, but I don't truly judge [that volition happen]. And the 2nd 1 if the authorities successful Russia changes, but it volition not hap tomorrow, it mightiness instrumentality possibly 1 oregon 2 years," she said.

"If Russia changes politically, it volition reappraisal and rethink its goals successful Ukraine," she noted.

In the champion script for Putin's regime, Stanovaya said Russia volition beryllium capable "to unafraid astatine slightest a minimum of gains it tin instrumentality from Ukraine." In the worst lawsuit scenario, "it volition person to retreat wholly and with each [the] consequences for [the] Russian authorities and Russian economy."