One year on, Russia's war in Ukraine ramps up fears over Europe's next security 'soft spot'

As Russia's onslaught successful Ukraine approaches its one-year milestone, fears are increasing astir the Kremlin's efforts to leverage simmering tensions successful a "second battleground."

The Western Balkans, a radical of six countries that European Union officials person repeatedly said beryllium to the European family, comprises Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia and Serbia.

Not yet members of the 27-nation bloc, the portion of astir 18 cardinal successful Southern and Eastern Europe is known arsenic an arena of geostrategic rivalry, with Moscow, Brussels and Washington among those jockeying for influence.

The committedness of EU accession is viewed arsenic the West's astir almighty instrumentality to stabilize and integrate the region, and Western Balkan leaders person recently welcomed what appears to beryllium a caller mindset to fortify ties.

But concerns implicit Russia's power successful the Western Balkans — an country inactive scarred by the taste wars of the 1990s — person intensified since the Kremlin's full-scale penetration of Ukraine.

Speaking astatine the World Economic Forum successful Davos, Switzerland, North Macedonia President Stevo Pendarovski said that, speech from Kyiv, helium believed that the Western Balkan portion was the "soft spot" of Europe's information architecture.

NATO, which counts Albania, Montenegro and North Macedonia among its members, said it has observed cyberattacks, disinformation, intimidation and different destabilizing activities successful the Western Balkans successful the past 12 months. This is successful summation to recurring determination tensions, including successful Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina.

The U.S.-led subject confederation besides warned of overseas actors moving to undermine progress, portion North Macedonia's Pendarovski says that the Western Balkans has been targeted by Russia's divisive docket for respective years.

"My judgement is that, if Russia volition effort to deflect someway the attraction of the West from Ukraine, which is the main theatre of warfare and propaganda of course, that the Western Balkan portion is much prone to that than the Baltics. So, we should instrumentality attraction astir that," Pendarovski said past month.

"It seems to maine that the alleged brushed spot successful the full pan-European information architecture close now, isolated from Ukraine of people … is the Western Balkans."

Russia is said to resent the pursuit of Western Balkan countries for integration into the EU and NATO, and the Kremlin is accused of moving to leverage taste and spiritual responsibility lines to undermine those efforts.

Moscow, which has agelong cultivated ties with Serbia and different allies, has denied claims that it is seeking to sow chaos crossed the region.

Adnan Ćerimagić, a elder expert for the Western Balkans astatine the European Stability Initiative deliberation tank, said helium agreed with Pendarovski's information appraisal of the portion amid Russia's warfare successful Ukraine.

"The crushed wherefore I would hold is that similar successful Russia, successful the Western Balkans, determination is simply a governmental imaginativeness that does not align with the existent signifier of [its] borders," Ćerimagić told CNBC via telephone.

Ćerimagić said Russia's warfare successful Ukraine provides Europe with a wide accidental to cement stableness successful the Western Balkans. He said the bloc could prehend this infinitesimal by providing a factual connection to the countries, allowing them to articulation by 2027 oregon 2030, if they instrumentality the indispensable reforms.

"I deliberation if they privation to seal the deal, they volition request to measurement up their connection to the region," Ćerimagić said.

EU officials person sought to reaffirm the value of bringing the Western Balkans into the bloc since Russia's penetration of Ukraine, and determination leaders — in a stark alteration of code from conscionable a fewer months prior — lauded this improvement precocious past year.

At the EU-Western Balkans acme successful aboriginal December, which was hosted successful the Balkan portion for the archetypal time, the bloc underscored its "full and unequivocal committedness to the European Union rank position of the Western Balkans."

This was connected the information of "credible reforms" by partners.

Peter Stano, the EU's pb overseas affairs spokesperson, said helium wholly rejects disapproval that the EU hasn't done capable to enactment the Western Balkan accession into the bloc.

"The information that they are successful the accession process means that each time they are getting person and much integrated with the EU based connected their efforts successful implementing reforms and with important assistance from the EU," Stano said.

Asked astir the existent information concern successful the region, Stano replied: "The contented is much astir stableness than the information arsenic such."

"It is not a warfare zone, and it volition not go a warfare portion for 2 reasons. Some of the countries successful the portion are NATO members already, and successful others, we person EU missions (military and civilian ones) and each of them are successful the EU accession process," Stano said.

"This provides capable preventative safeguards from immoderate benignant of hard oregon blistery struggle to erupt," helium added, noting determination are inactive incidents and tensions, "but this is thing antithetic and linked to erstwhile unresolved issues."

"For sure, the Western Balkans is simply a 2nd battleground for Russia successful presumption of overseas interference and accusation manipulation. It has been before, but aft Ukraine, this intensified successful presumption of wide interference, including cyberattacks, and trying to undermine the stableness due to the fact that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin doesn't privation them to get person to the EU," Stano said.

For its part, NATO said that the group's Strategic Concept approved astatine the Madrid acme successful June past twelvemonth reaffirmed the strategical value of the Western Balkans to the subject alliance.

"It is wide that the Russian penetration of Ukraine affects the stableness of our susceptible partners and exposes them to a greater hazard of malign influence," a NATO authoritative told CNBC. "We volition proceed to enactment unneurotic to sphere stability, and enactment betterment and resilience successful the region, due to the fact that information and stableness successful the Western Balkans is important for NATO and for bid and stableness successful Europe."

North Macedonia's Pendarovski past period described the U.S. arsenic a "key player" successful supporting Western Balkan countries done Russia's warfare successful Ukraine.

In effect to a petition for comment, a State Department spokesperson told CNBC that Washington remains profoundly engaged successful the region, describing the aboriginal of the Western Balkans arsenic "squarely wrong the EU."

"We indispensable not fto the Russian authorities usage its warfare of prime to clasp backmost the advancement of the countries of the Western Balkans," the spokesperson said.

"Russia has demonstrated with exquisite clarity that it does not stock the aforesaid values and is not looking retired for their champion interests," they added. "Russia's warfare has besides clarified however urgent our enactment is to assistance each the countries of the Western Balkans to afloat beforehand antiauthoritarian reforms and consolidation indispensable to execute their aspirations of integration into European and Euro-Atlantic institutions."