Russia's defeats in Ukraine have strategists worried about Moscow's next steps

Russia has been tight-lipped astir its latest defeats successful Ukraine, and strategists fearfulness that Moscow could look to punish Kyiv severely for its victories connected the battlefield successful an effort to prevention face.

Kyiv's forces launched a monolithic counterattack successful the northeast of the country, reclaiming thousands of kilometers of Russian-occupied onshore implicit the past fewer days.

Now thoughts are turning to imaginable Russian retaliation, with Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov telling the Financial Times helium was expecting a counterattack. "A counteroffensive liberates territory and aft that you person to power it and beryllium acceptable to support it," Reznikov said, adding: "Of course, we person to beryllium worried, this warfare has disquieted america for years."

Russia has already launched aggravated shelling connected the Kharkiv region, starting Sunday night, leaving it without electricity and water. Ukraine's Deputy Defense Minister told Reuters it was excessively aboriginal to accidental Ukraine had afloat power of the area.

Close-followers of the Kremlin accidental President Vladimir Putin is apt weighing his options now.

"The subject communicative for the Kremlin is becoming worse," Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group president said successful a enactment Monday. "To the grade that continues, it pressures Putin into calling for a mobilization — apt a partial 1 but inactive a politically and socially costly determination for the Russian president astatine home, that volition unit him into declaring warfare with Ukraine, and tacitly admitting that Russia is facing subject problems," helium said successful emailed comments. Russia has insisted connected calling its penetration of Ukraine a "special subject operation," not a war.

"Further, it makes Russian willingness to mete retired Grozny-like 'punishment' onto the Ukrainians higher, some successful presumption of inflicting wide casualties connected Ukraine done greater targeting of municipality centers, arsenic good as, successful the worst case, utilizing chemic oregon adjacent tactical atomic weapons connected the battlefield to sow wide panic," Bremmer added.

"If there's a apt near-term alteration successful the russia warfare going forward, it's escalatory and not a negotiated breakthrough."

Ukraine's victories connected the battlefield successful caller days, and its quality to reclaim dozens of towns and villages successful the Kharkiv region, puts Russia connected the backmost foot. It is present scrambling to support its territory successful Donetsk and Luhansk, wherever 2 pro-Russian "republics" are located, successful the Donbas successful eastbound Ukraine.

Russian forces are wide believed to person been taken by astonishment by Ukraine's counterattack successful the northeast of the country and were heavy outnumbered. There were signs that Russian forces had beaten a hasty retreat, with Russian stores of instrumentality and ammunition stores abandoned.

Ahead of these counterattacks successful the northeast, Kyiv had heavy promoted a counteroffensive successful the southbound of Ukraine — starring Russia to redeploy troops there.

On Monday, the Kremlin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said Russia's aims successful Ukraine stay the aforesaid — to "liberate" the Donbas — and insisted that warring would continue.

There are rumblings of discontent successful Russia, however, with adjacent staunch supporters of the Kremlin questioning the warfare successful nationalist forums, including connected state-run TV successful Russia.

"We've been told that everything is going according to plan. Does anyone truly judge that six months agone the program was to beryllium leaving [the metropolis of] Balakliya, repelling a counteroffensive successful the Kharkiv portion and failing to instrumentality implicit Kharkiv?" a usually pro-Putin governmental adept Viktor Olevich said on the state-run NTV channel, the Moscow Times reported.

Another nationalist figure, former lawmaker Boris Nadezhdin, said that Russia would not triumph the warfare if it continued to combat arsenic it was, and said determination needed to beryllium "either mobilization and full-scale war, oregon we get out."

Analysts astatine planetary hazard consultancy Teneo noted successful emailed comments Monday evening that subject losses and the humiliation of Russian troops "pose risks to President Vladimir Putin's regime, arsenic home disapproval of the behaviour of the alleged peculiar subject cognition is mounting from assorted sides."

"As a result, Putin faces increasing unit to respond to progressively unfavorable dynamics connected the frontline, which mightiness see either escalatory moves oregon calls to commencement ceasefire talks," they added.

Putin's authorities present faces a hard choice; the warfare is dragging connected and its under-supplied forces are apt becoming demoralized arsenic they travel nether unit from Ukraine's well-organized and well-armed army.

"Moscow faces a stark prime present I think: look humiliating decision successful Ukraine — which seems inevitable fixed the existent unit unit deployments, proviso chains and momentum connected Ukraine's broadside — and writer for peace," Timothy Ash, elder emerging markets sovereign strategist astatine BlueBay Asset Management, said successful a enactment Monday.

"Or escalate with wide mobilisation and WMD [weapon of wide destruction], oregon possibly Syrian benignant indiscriminate levelling of Ukrainian cities."

Ash said Putin had apt baulked astatine the wide mobilization option, which would enactment Russia connected a warfare footing and spot the conscription of galore of its citizens. The "risk is that they travel location successful assemblage bags and origin home societal and governmental unrest successful Russia," helium said, but added that Putin was besides improbable to edifice to unconventional weapons — specified arsenic WMDs.

"Putin had the accidental and failed to propulsion the trigger arsenic helium knows these are lone truly deterrents and erstwhile helium does unleash them we are successful a full caller shot game, hazard of World War 3, and a concatenation of events which volition beryllium precise hard to negociate but wherever helium is intelligibly seen arsenic the aggressor/mad feline and loses astir of his friends internationally, including China, et al," Ash added.

He said that, aft much attempted intensive airstrikes successful Ukraine, helium expected Putin to effort to statesman "serious" bid talks. "But helium volition person to hurry up arsenic the crushed successful Ukraine, and perchance adjacent Moscow, is shifting rapidly nether his feet," Ash noted.

"At this signifier a full illness of Russian forces crossed Ukraine is wholly imaginable - including that held earlier Feb. 24, including Crimea, and adjacent speech astir imaginable splits successful Moscow and risks to Putin's enactment successful power. Watch this space."