Sweden is in the final stretch to NATO membership. But Turkey could yet derail it

NATO is convening a acme successful Vilnius, Lithuania, connected July 11 to o.k. caller defence plans, and — its leaders anticipation — denote the afloat support of a caller subordinate to the alliance, Sweden. 

But much than a twelvemonth aft the Nordic state made its exertion to articulation the defence organization, Turkey — which has been a subordinate since 1952 and boasts NATO's second-largest subject — stands successful the way.

Hungary, an EU and NATO member, is the lone different holdout, though its stance connected the contented is expected to travel Turkey's. Countries request unanimous support from NATO's existing 31 subordinate states successful bid to join. 

Turkey is leveraging its spot arsenic a subordinate of the confederation to extract concessions from different countries. It's a stake that could wage disconnected handsomely for Ankara — oregon it could further accent relations with the West, backfiring and hurting the country's already fragile economy. 

U.S. President Joe Biden has already told Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that Washington wants the objection to Sweden's NATO bid dropped, portion Erdogan is pushing the medication for a merchantability of F-16 combatant jets for the Turkish military. The jets could beryllium thing Turkey gains successful speech for a imaginable support for Sweden, though Biden officials accidental the 2 demands are "totally unrelated." 

With overmuch astatine involvement for Turkey, Sweden and the NATO alliance, whichever absorption Turkey moves successful volition person important consequences for them all.   

Turkey's objection stems from Sweden's enactment for Kurdish groups that Ankara deems to beryllium terrorists. Kurds, an taste number successful Turkey constituting immoderate 20% of the country's population, person a tumultuous past with the Turkish government, which classifies immoderate Kurdish governmental groups to beryllium a terrible threat. Sweden has made efforts to set its policies to Turkey's demands, but Erdogan says that helium isn't satisfied.

Turkey's presumption is besides fundamentally a flex, immoderate observers say, utilizing its relation successful NATO to triumph concessions and punctual the West that it is simply a spouse whose demands indispensable beryllium taken seriously.

"There's inactive a accidental that Turkey volition let Sweden to participate NATO successful clip for the July summit," Ryan Bohl, a elder Middle East and North Africa expert astatine Rane, told CNBC. "But there's intelligibly a realistic accidental that Erdogan volition proceed to play this happening retired good past that deadline."

Finland and Sweden announced their intentions to use for NATO rank successful May of 2022, reversing a historical argumentation of nonalignment successful the aftermath of Russia's bloody penetration of Ukraine successful February of that year.

While authoritative partners of the confederation since the 1990s, the thought that the Nordic states mightiness really articulation the radical made Moscow bristle — NATO enlargement is thing it has antecedently cited to warrant invading Ukraine. 

Erdogan meantime has a affable narration with Russian person Vladimir Putin, operating arsenic a mediator of sorts betwixt Moscow and Kyiv and refusing to follow Western sanctions against Russia.

Erdogan yet approved Finland's accession to NATO successful March, which added a whopping 830 miles of NATO territory on Russia's occidental onshore border. But helium says that Sweden has yet to make the advancement that Ankara is looking for, accusing it of allowing Kurdish protests successful Stockholm that enactment the PKK, oregon Kurdish Workers' Party, which some states designate arsenic a violent group.

Many Kurdish activists surviving successful Sweden accidental they bash not enactment coercion but reason Erdogan and his policies, and now fearfulness Stockholm whitethorn merchantability them retired for NATO membership. Turkey's demands of Stockholm controversially see extraditing definite Kurdish activists to Turkey, immoderate of whom are Swedish citizens and person been protected from extradition nether Swedish law.

"President Erdogan said Sweden has taken steps successful the close absorption by making changes successful anti-terrorism legislation," a connection from the Turkish presidency said connected July 5. "But supporters of the PKK (Kurdish Workers' Party) ... violent enactment proceed to freely signifier demonstrations praising terrorism, which nullifies the steps taken," it added.

Turkey is utilizing this accidental to nonstop an important connection astir its nationalist information interests, explained Kamal Alam, a non-resident elder chap astatine the Atlantic Council.

"A batch of Turkey's stance is simply a nonstop connection to Europe that whilst this whitethorn look similar posturing, Ankara has not gotten implicit the EU enactment to the YPG/PYD successful northbound East Syria which besides translates into indirect enactment to the PKK," helium said, referencing Kurdish militant and governmental groups successful Syria that person links to the PKK, but who were captious successful the combat against ISIS there. 

"This stance is simply a nonstop effect of the fallout of the warfare successful Syria erstwhile Turkey drifted isolated from the EU connected galore fronts," Alam said. "Whilst the headlines mightiness beryllium of tactical blocking of joining NATO, the wide strategical messaging is don't messiness with Turkey's nationalist security." 

He besides noted the decades-long refusal by the EU to fto Turkey into the bloc, adding: "Turkey is saying we are the 2nd largest service successful NATO and aft each the blackmailing and stalled EU accession, we volition present reverse the process of who comes successful oregon out."

While the stake could wage disconnected for Turkey, it besides threatens to rupture already tense relations with Western allies and adjacent backfire economically. 

"Turkey's blockade connected Sweden's NATO progression isn't a clear-cut summons to economical fallout, but it is playing with fire," said Guney Yildiz, a researcher focused connected Turkey and Syria.  

"This determination is portion of a broader creation Ankara is performing betwixt Russia and NATO, utilizing its unsocial presumption to leverage advantages," helium told CNBC. 

"With subtle alignment with the West connected different fronts similar Russian sanctions, Turkey feels it tin instrumentality the vigor implicit Sweden for a while. But it's a ticking clock," Yildiz warned. "The model to exploit Sweden's rank for summation is closing. When it does, Turkey volition wage a price, particularly arsenic the outgo of managing its Russian relations escalates, inevitably tipping the standard towards much compromise and little gain."

Turkey's system has been connected a rollercoaster the past respective years, with ostentation veering betwixt 40% and 80% successful the past twelvemonth and a currency that's mislaid immoderate 80% of its worth against the dollar successful the past 5 years. 

In specified a precarious setting, Turkey can't spend to instrumentality immoderate much risks, says Timothy Ash, elder emerging markets strategist astatine BlueBay Asset Management.  

"Either Turkey approves Sweden's NATO rank astatine Vilnius oregon it risks a large interruption successful relations with the West and astatine a clip erstwhile Turkey's macro is connected the edge. It's determination time," Ash wrote successful an email note.  

"It volition spell to the past minute, the 11.5th hour," helium said. "But if it does not hap determination volition beryllium a large situation successful Turkey-NATO relations — astatine a clip erstwhile the Turkish macro looks peculiarly vulnerable."