Ukraine can still lose the war — but Russia can’t win, Ian Bremmer says

Ukraine tin suffer the war, but Russia cannot triumph astatine a geopolitical level, Ian Bremmer, governmental idiosyncratic and president of Eurasia Group, told CNBC. 

"Ukraine tin suffer this war," Bremmer told CNBC's Hadley Gamble astatine the Munich Security Conference connected Friday, but Russia cannot triumph successful NATO due to the fact that of its "pariah" status, Bremmer said.

"[Russia] volition inactive beryllium chopped off, NATO volition inactive expand and for Putin, feeling humiliated, insecure and successful a vastly worse geostrategic presumption than helium was earlier helium invaded, what's helium going to bash arsenic the world's astir almighty rogue state? That's a semipermanent question that goes beyond Ukraine," Bremmer added.

Bremmer said that the NATO enactment for Ukraine had been "extraordinary" and "well beyond what anyone thought possible," with Germany reducing its dependency connected Russian energy supplies and the U.S. taking the pb successful sending subject supplies to Ukraine. But helium questioned whether this assistance would continue. 

"Will it beryllium existent successful 2024, with upcoming statesmanlike elections?" helium asked. "We don't cognize what's going to hap there."

It remains to beryllium seen whether Ukraine volition proceed to person the "attention and cohesion" it has gained from the West successful the archetypal twelvemonth pursuing Russia's invasion, Bremmer noted.

"The reply is Ukraine tin lose. Everyone present needs to recognize that Ukraine tin suffer this war," Bremmer said.

So far, the U.K., U.S. and Germany are among the nations that person agreed to equip Ukraine with tanks, but they person yet to fulfil Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's most caller petition for combatant jets.

"[The war] is an existential situation for Ukraine, it's an existential situation for Zelenskyy and his household personally – they're warring virtually for their lives," Bremmer said.