Ukraine's dam disaster is 'unlikely' to derail its plans for a counteroffensive against Russia

The illness of a strategically important dam successful Russian-occupied Ukraine raises questions astir the quality of Kyiv to motorboat a long-anticipated counteroffensive, but analysts judge the resulting carnage is improbable to deter the adjacent signifier of the war.

The Nova Kakhovka dam, which is situated connected the Dnieper River, was blown up connected Tuesday. The breach has since wrought havoc for a swathe of confederate Ukraine, with tens of thousands of radical fleeing arsenic full cities were reduced to ruins by the cascading floodwater.

Ukraine accused Russian forces of blowing up the dam, portion the Kremlin denied the onslaught and said Kyiv intentionally sabotaged the dam to distract attraction from its counteroffensive. CNBC has not been capable to independently verify the claims.

The dam breach comes amid months of buildup to Ukraine's counteroffensive, a signifier of the warfare that galore spot arsenic perchance pivotal successful Kyiv's pursuit of victory.

NBC News reported Thursday that Ukraine had yet launched its counteroffensive, citing a elder serviceman and a worker adjacent the beforehand lines. The study said a question of Ukrainian attacks connected the war's southeastern beforehand lines appeared to bespeak a important caller push.

A spokesperson for the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces connected Friday, however, dismissed reports that a counteroffensive had begun, according to Reuters. Ukraine's authorities has repeatedly said determination volition beryllium nary nationalist announcement of the commencement of the counteroffensive.

Andrius Tursa, cardinal and Eastern Europe advisor astatine Teneo, a governmental hazard consultancy, said the demolition of the Nova Kakhovka dam whitethorn change Ukraine's violative plans — but was "unlikely to derail" them.

In a enactment published Thursday, Tursa said intensifying and violative actions by Ukraine could bespeak the commencement of a wider campaign, but it is apt to beryllium "gradual and cautious."

"Ukraine's violative was agelong expected to absorption connected liberating southeastern regions of the country, which could sever Russia's 'land bridge' to Crimea, divided the occupying forces, and airs caller risks to Russian subject assets successful the peninsula," Tursa said.

"While this apt remains 1 of the objectives, Ukraine is besides nether expanding governmental unit to show that Western subject instrumentality and grooming person enabled it to woody large blows to the Russian forces and recapture important areas of occupied territory careless of wherever it is."

If Russia is down the demolition of the dam, and it was approved by Russian President Vladimir Putin and subject leadership, Tursa said "it shows a deficiency of assurance successful their quality to support the full frontline by accepted means."

What's more, the dam illness sends a connection to the planetary assemblage that Moscow is prepared to proceed to usage "asymmetric, escalatory, and highly destructive methods of defending, adjacent if it hurts Russian interests too," Tursa added.

Ukraine had agelong warned that the Nova Kakhovka dam was a people for Russia. In November, Kyiv expressed concerns that the dam could beryllium destroyed by retreating Russian forces from the close slope of the Dnieper River successful the Kherson region.

Ian Bremmer, laminitis and president of governmental hazard consultancy Eurasia Group, besides said that helium doesn't expect the demolition of the dam to marque overmuch of a quality to the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

"This is not wherever the 'land bridge' [to Crimea] is astir easy breached truthful that is astir apt not an impact," Bremmer said Wednesday via Twitter, and stressed the value of waiting for grounds arsenic to who was down the dam collapse.

Russian forces and concern authorities person since sought to exacerbate the humanitarian ramifications of the flooding from Tuesday's dam break, according to analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based deliberation tank.

This includes Russian forces hiding among civilians seeking to evacuate from flooded settlements connected the eastbound slope of the Dnieper River, according to the deliberation tank, and reportedly shelling a flooded evacuation tract successful Kherson City, sidesplitting 1 civilian and injuring respective others.

Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko, meanwhile, said the floodwaters unleashed pursuing the dam blast would "definitely" marque a counteroffensive much hard successful this area.

"We person respective 100 miles of the frontlines much truthful determination [are places] to onslaught but successful this nonstop place, it volition beryllium harder. I americium not a subject idiosyncratic truthful I can't usage the connection impossible. I don't cognize but decidedly overmuch harder," Goncharenko said Wednesday successful an interrogation with Channel 4 News.