Why egg prices are surging — but chicken prices are falling

Which (price change) came first, the chickenhearted oregon the egg?

Grocery prices are increasing astatine their fastest gait successful decades — nary much truthful than eggs. Yet chickenhearted prices fell successful October.

It whitethorn look counterintuitive that ovum and chickenhearted prices moved successful other directions.

The dynamic is chiefly owed to a terrible outbreak of vertebrate flu successful the U.S. — which has killed galore egg-laying hens but has mostly near chickens raised for nutrient accumulation unscathed, according to economists.

"A batch of things are up since 2020," said Bill Lapp, president of Advanced Economic Solutions, a consulting steadfast specializing successful nutrient economics. "But the caller spike is bonzer successful the shell-egg arsenic good arsenic egg-product markets."

Surging ovum prices are chiefly the effect of 1 of the worst-ever outbreaks of avian flu successful the U.S.

About 50.3 cardinal birds person been impacted by the microorganism since aboriginal February 2022, according to caller data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These figures see birds similar turkeys and ducks, too.

Bird flu is comparatively uncommon successful the U.S. The past bout was successful 2015, erstwhile a grounds 50.5 cardinal birds were impacted, the CDC said. The flu hadn't emerged successful astatine slightest a decennary oregon 2 anterior to that, Lapp said.

Here's wherefore this matters: Avian flu, which is mostly carried by chaotic birds similar ducks and geese, is "highly contagious," the New Jersey Department of Agriculture warned past month. It's besides highly lethal; it kills 90% to 100% of chickens, often wrong 48 hours, according to the CDC.

Farmers mostly indispensable termination their remaining birds — not by prime but owed to national rules meant to forestall spread, said Brian Moscogiuri, a planetary commercialized strategist astatine Eggs Unlimited, an ovum supplier based successful Irvine, California.

As a result, astir 37 cardinal egg-laying hens — "layers," successful manufacture shorthand — person died since the opening of 2022, Moscogiuri said. They relationship for astir 10% of U.S. production, helium said.

Egg quantity has cratered successful lockstep. About 8.8 cardinal eggs were produced successful September 2022, down from astir 9.7 cardinal successful December 2021, according to astir caller data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

"It's a proviso disruption, 'act of God' benignant stuff," said Moscogiuri, who called the concern "unprecedented."

"It's benignant of happenstance that ostentation is going connected [more broadly] during the aforesaid period," helium added.

Bird flu typically arrives during the outpouring migration and disappears by the summer, experts said. But this twelvemonth was different; the microorganism re-emerged successful September.

In October, the Agriculture Department revised its accumulation forecast for array eggs downward for 2023 and the remainder of 2022 pursuing "September detections" of vertebrate flu.

That avian flu flare-up — and its associated decease toll for egg-laying hens — is moving headlong into highest request season, erstwhile consumers usage much eggs for vacation baking, experts said.

Consumer request for eggs has besides been buoyed by a pivot distant from immoderate higher-cost proteins amid broader nutrient inflation, the Agriculture Department suggested successful an October outlook report.

Elevated ovum prices "could past into the archetypal 4th of 2023," Lapp said.

Meanwhile, chickenhearted prices retreated successful October, falling by 1.3% during the month.

The wholesale terms of chickenhearted bosom has fallen beneath $1.20 a pound, a 3rd of its highest astir $3.60 implicit the summer, for example, Lapp said.

Chickens raised for nutrient depletion — known arsenic "broilers" — aren't affected by avian flu to the aforesaid grade arsenic the "layers."

"It's 2 wholly antithetic styles of production, 2 wholly antithetic breeds of bird," Moscogiuri said.

The lifecycle for a broiler is overmuch shorter — anyplace from 5.5 to 9 weeks, from hatch to slaughter, according to Vencomatic Group, a poultry consulting firm.

However, the lifecycle for an egg-laying hen tin beryllium upwards of 100 weeks, Moscogiuri said. It tin instrumentality astir 5 to six months for layers conscionable to scope afloat productivity, according to the Agriculture Department.

The second are truthful much susceptible to vertebrate flu since farmers indispensable support them live for a longer time, experts said.

Broiler quantity is besides up, contributing to little chickenhearted prices astatine the market store.

For example, astir 865 cardinal broiler chicks hatched successful August — 2.9% higher than August 2021 and a monthly record, which had antecedently been acceptable successful March 2020, the Agriculture Department said.

Broiler "placements" person besides climbed successful caller weeks, hitting a grounds 194.2 cardinal chicks successful the week ended Sept. 17, according to the Department. The bureau raised 2023 accumulation forecasts connected that "optimistic" hatch and placement data.

Despite the caller retreat, chickenhearted prices are inactive up 14.5% compared to October 2021, according to the CPI. Higher prices for commodities similar maize and soybeans — the superior ingredients successful chickenhearted provender — person apt contributed to ostentation for chicken, arsenic good arsenic eggs. Higher vigor prices besides origin into elevated costs for nutrient distribution, for example.