Why every Cup runner can, and can't, win

2 years ago 153

When the timepiece strikes 3pm (AEDT) connected Tuesday, November 1, the obstruction gates volition unfastened astatine Flemington and the astir iconic 3 minutes successful Australian athletics volition play out. We've tally the regularisation implicit each Melbourne Cup runner to assistance you prime a winner.

By Simon Brunsdon|6:56am Oct 31, 2022

1. GOLD TRIP

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1. GOLD TRIP

A six-year-old stallion asked to transportation the apical value successful this year's contention with 57.5kg - 2 kilos much than the adjacent successful the field. Remarkably has lone won erstwhile successful his 15 starts to date.

Gold Trip ran a courageous 2nd successful the Caulfield Cup down Durston - who was subsequently scratched from the Melbourne Cup - and past finished ninth successful the Cox Plate with nary luck successful running.

Has had 5 starts connected a dense way for nary wins, and has ne'er won implicit 2 miles. He volition person the blinkers disconnected for the archetypal clip connected Tuesday.

The information present is the unchangeable of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, who cognize however to premier their runners to perfection.

2. DUAIS

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2. DUAIS

A five-year-old mare trained by Edward Cummings - grandson of legendary 12-time Melbourne Cup winning trainer Bart - and ridden present by champion Sydney hoop Hugh Bowman.

Finished eighth successful the Caulfield Cup past start, but came from backmost successful the tract and finished the contention well. By each reports she volition beryllium amended suited to 3200m astir Flemington, and the jockey is 1 of the champion successful the business.

She likes brushed crushed - having won 3 times connected it - but is winless (and placeless) from 4 tries connected dense ground, which is what we expect connected Tuesday.

3. KNIGHTS ORDER

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3. KNIGHTS ORDER

One of the veterans of the tract astatine 8 years old, carrying the 2nd heaviest value but trained by the astute Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Waterhouse won this contention with Fiorente successful 2013.

The large tick for Knights Order is the dense way expected connected Tuesday - helium has won doubly and placed doubly much from 5 starts connected dense tracks, arsenic good arsenic winning 3 times connected soft. He won the Sydney Cup implicit 3200m connected dense crushed successful April.

He hasn't finished worse than 4th successful his 4 starts this preparation, and ran 3rd successful the Caulfield Cup astatine his past start. Could beryllium a large subordinate and a bully stake astatine the $16 helium was paying arsenic of Monday afternoon.

Is expected to pb the battalion and acceptable the pace, past volition beryllium trying to clasp them disconnected down the straight.

4. MONTEFILIA

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4. MONTEFILIA

Seems to beryllium the fashionable prime to triumph this contention by a fig of starring experts, including Wide World of Sports' expert Simon O'Donnell. The starring contender among the Aussie hopefuls trying to stave disconnected an planetary victory.

The rave reviews travel mostly from her tally successful the Caulfield Cup, wherever she stormed location from the backmost of the tract to spot fourth. That tally has galore experts believing the David Payne-trained mare is acceptable to tally the 3200m required connected Tuesday.

She's won doubly from six starts connected heavy, and a period agone ran 3rd implicit 2000m connected a dense way astatine Randwick. The $12 connected connection from Bet365 connected Monday day whitethorn not past long.

5. NUMERIAN

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5. NUMERIAN

A six-year-old gelding from Ireland, trained by in-form Aussie trainer Annabel Neasham and ridden this week by fashionable Sydney jockey Tommy Berry.

Led successful the Caulfield Cup and held connected to spot 5th successful that race. Has 2 2nd placings and a 3rd this mentation and looks to beryllium successful bully form, but has ne'er won implicit much than 2200m - a kilometre abbreviated of what is required connected Tuesday.

He's had 7 tries connected dense crushed for 1 triumph and 4 seconds.

6. WITHOUT A FIGHT

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6. WITHOUT A FIGHT

This five-year-old gelding looks to beryllium 1 of the large planetary dangers, and brings bully overseas signifier to Melbourne which should construe good to the Cup.

Last mentation helium won doubly astatine York implicit 2787m, which suggests helium volition tally good implicit 2 miles astatine Flemington. Hasn't had a tally successful 38 days and has ne'er tally connected a dense track, which is the question mark.

7. CAMORRA

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7. CAMORRA

This five-year-old gelding won the Curragh Cup successful June, which is the aforesaid contention won by some Twilight Payment and Rekindling anterior to their respecting Melbourne Cup victories.

Has won implicit 2816m which suggests the region won't beryllium an issue, though has nary wins from 4 starts connected dense tracks.

8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND

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8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND

The short-priced favourite to triumph the Melbourne Cup connected the backmost of beardown European form. The four-year-old gelding has been lightly raced, but he's won 3 of his 7 starts, and been runner-up a further 3 times - needless to accidental an outstanding record.

The question marks are his quality to enactment 2 miles - having ne'er tally further than 2615m - and however helium volition grip the dense crushed astatine Flemington. He has lone ever raced connected bully surfaces, and erstwhile connected a synthetic.

He has the people and deserves to beryllium favourite but the abbreviated terms should crook a batch of punters off.

9. STOCKMAN

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9. STOCKMAN

The six-year-old gelding trained successful Sydney by Joseph Pride was a fashionable victor astatine Randwick 3 weeks ago, saluting successful the 2600m St Leger up of Melbourne Cup rival Arapaho.

This is simply a superior measurement up successful class, though, he's not fancied to beryllium determination astatine the decorativeness against immoderate of these horses. He does person bully signifier connected dense ground, winning 4 times and placing doubly much from 10 starts.

10. VOW AND DECLARE

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10. VOW AND DECLARE

The fashionable victor of the 2019 Melbourne Cup erstwhile triumphing against a big of much fancied planetary horses. Simon O'Donnell says Vow And Declare is successful arsenic bully signifier present arsenic helium was this clip 3 years ago, and has each anticipation of repeating that effort.

He's 7 years aged present and carrying 2 kilos much than successful 2019, and has lone ever raced connected dense tracks once, for nary success.

He's been racing successful this people for this full preparation, and astir precocious finished sixth successful the Caulfield Cup but did capable to suggest helium volition grip the combat connected Tuesday. Both trainer and jockey cognize however to triumph this race.

11. YOUNG WERTHER

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11. YOUNG WERTHER

Trained by the aforesaid antheral successful complaint of Vow And Declare - Danny O'Brien - which suggests this hopeful volition beryllium primed to tally the 2 miles present connected the large stage.

His lone tally connected dense crushed came astatine the past start, erstwhile helium finished 10th successful the Cox Plate, though the tally was amended than that effect connected paper.

He's lone won erstwhile successful his 15-start career, and that was implicit 1500m.

12. HOO YA MAL

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12. HOO YA MAL

An English four-year-old who has travel to Australia specifically for this race, and placed into the attraction of Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Those factors unsocial marque this colt a proposition for Cup punters. The jockey is besides a large tick - Craig Williams won this contention successful 2019 and is ne'er acold away.

He's lone had 9 vocation starts but has won twice, and placed connected six different occasions. He won astatine Goodwood implicit 2816m connected a brushed way lone 2 months ago.

In July helium finished successful the placings and crossed the enactment with Deauville Legend - present the short-priced Melbourne Cup favourite - successful the Gordon Stakes. The $16 connected connection from Bet365 should person punters lining up.

13. SERPENTINE

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13. SERPENTINE

A five-year-old gelding who has the quality to tally retired a beardown 3200m, but the query is if helium tin emergence to the people of immoderate of the different horses.

A large tally successful the Archer Stakes connected Saturday - wherever helium narrowly mislaid to contention favourite Surefire - volition person immoderate punters interested, and the other 700m present looks a positive.

Has lone ever won doubly successful 14 starts.

14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR

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14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR

A five-year-old gelding who has arguably done his champion enactment implicit 3200m - winning the Adelaide Cup successful March past finishing 3rd successful the Sydney Cup successful April connected a dense way - the victor of that contention was Knights Order.

He's had 3 much starts since then, and hasn't finished higher than seventh - his latest commencement being a 10th placing successful the Bart Cummings.

His signifier from earlier successful the twelvemonth could triumph this race, but he's struggled to find it again since the spell.

15. GRAND PROMENADE

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15. GRAND PROMENADE

He won the Bart Cummings past twelvemonth earlier finishing a gallant sixth successful the Melbourne Cup. This twelvemonth has been a antithetic lead-up to the Cup - helium ran 4th successful the Moonee Valley Cup implicit 2500m connected a dense track, which is promising.

The six-year-old gelding has won 3 times from six starts astir Flemington truthful helium knows and likes the track. And erstwhile again, the unchangeable of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace are elite astatine timing their preparations.

16. ARAPAHO

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16. ARAPAHO

A five-year-old gelding who finished 2nd down Stockman successful the St Leger past commencement astatine Randwick.

Has ne'er raced astatine this way oregon implicit this distance. Has immoderate signifier successful the wet, but large queries implicit the people of the equine against immoderate of the others successful this field.

17. EMISSARY

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17. EMISSARY

Impressive victor of the Geelong Cup past commencement astatine large odds, moving implicit the apical of contention favourite Surefire. That contention is mostly a large signifier usher for the Melbourne Cup which puts Emissary successful the premix astatine Flemington.

The five-year-old gelding is simply a section horse, too, trained by Michael Moroney astatine Flemington. He's lone raced the way erstwhile competitively for a 3rd placing successful the Hotham Handicap past year.

Hasn't tally implicit this distance, and seems to similar a adust track, which helium won't get connected Tuesday.

18. LUNAR FLARE

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18. LUNAR FLARE

Is inactive successful information of being scratched from the Cup and volition request to acquisition different vet cheque connected Tuesday morning. If helium tin marque it to the barriers, though, helium looks a genuine accidental of being competitory connected the backmost of immoderate large lead-in form.

The seven-year-old mare won the Bart Cummings to gain her spot successful the Cup, and past she finished 2nd successful the Moonee Valley Cup implicit 2500m connected dense crushed past start.

Has ne'er tally 2 miles, but is acquainted with the Flemington people and looks acold from the worst accidental successful the race.

19. SMOKIN' ROMANS

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19. SMOKIN' ROMANS

Another gelding from the unchangeable of Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, and astir apt their champion anticipation of winning the elusive Melbourne Cup. Jamie Kah is besides hoping to go the 2nd pistillate jockey to execute the feat.

Smokin' Romans was favourite successful the Caulfield Cup but ran seventh erstwhile having nary luck. Before that helium had won the Turnbull, the Naturalism, and finished 2nd successful a handicap astatine Moonee Valley.

From 3 starts connected dense crushed he has won once, and been runner-up once. Expected to beryllium down the gait and look for him to marque a large tally late.

20. TRALEE ROSE

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20. TRALEE ROSE

Last twelvemonth the mare had a stellar run starring up to the Melbourne Cup, winning the Geelong Cup and moving 2nd successful the Bart Cummings. But she was stood connected during her tally and finished ninth successful the expansive final.

Unfortunately this mentation has been good beneath that one, and she presently looks a people oregon 2 beneath the champion horses successful this diagnostic race.

She likes the track, though, having won doubly successful 5 starts and being runner-up doubly more. She's unplaced astatine 2 tries implicit this distance.

21. POINT NEPEAN (scratched)

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21. POINT NEPEAN (scratched)

Point Nepean was scratched connected Monday aft failing a vet check. READ MORE HERE

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