Why the UK could be heading for a flu-covid 'twindemic' this winter

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Last year's warnings astir a peculiarly atrocious flu play didn't materialise, but an earlier and much terrible outbreak successful Australia doesn't bode good for the bluish hemisphere

Health | Analysis 28 September 2022

By Clare Wilson

A pharmacist administers a flu vaccine up of the UK's 2022/23 flu season

Along with respective different countries, the UK is stepping up its efforts to transportation at-risk groups, including anyone aged 50 and over, to get vaccinated against some flu and covid-19 successful the coming weeks.

Today, UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) officials launched their autumn vaccination run for some respiratory viruses, informing that this wintertime is apt to beryllium peculiarly atrocious for flu.

At this constituent immoderate radical whitethorn beryllium experiencing déjà vu. There were akin claims 12 months ago, but the expected “twindemic” of flu and covid-19 did not materialise.

But that does not mean we should disbelieve the warnings this clip around. Last winter, galore radical were inactive practising societal distancing, to greater oregon lesser extents.

In England, arsenic omicron began surging successful December, “Plan B” rules were introduced, including compulsory facemasks successful indoor nationalist spaces and impervious of vaccination to participate venues specified arsenic nightclubs.

There was besides little societal mixing successful different ways, specified arsenic much wide moving from home.

In the extremity this could not clasp backmost the omicron surge, but flu is little transmissible than the coronavirus and it was suppressed to precise debased levels.

The fig of radical hospitalised with flu successful England peaked astatine 1 sixth of that of the twelvemonth earlier the pandemic took clasp there.

Bear successful caput that successful an mean winter, 20 to 30 per cent of radical are exposed to the flu virus, though galore person nary symptoms. This means that for 2 years running, astir each those mean exposures did not happen. As this wintertime approaches, determination volition beryllium overmuch little colonisation immunity to flu than normal.

This winter, societal mixing is apt to beryllium backmost to pre-pandemic levels arsenic the UK has announced nary plans for reintroducing restrictions. The coming flu play truthful looks acceptable to beryllium the archetypal successful 3 years that volition let the accustomed levels of respiratory microorganism spread.

Australia’s acquisition implicit the past fewer months, during its winter, provides an indicator of what whitethorn hap successful the bluish hemisphere. Cases peaked importantly higher determination than successful the 3 years before the covid-19 pandemic began.

The main flu variant successful Australia this twelvemonth was called H3N2, which past probe suggests causes more terrible unwellness than emblematic seasonal flu. This strain was linked with a somewhat higher flu hospitalisation complaint successful the UK six years ago.

Fortunately, the flu vaccine soon to beryllium connected connection successful the bluish hemisphere contains the H3N2 virus, successful an inactivated form.

The Australian flu play this twelvemonth not lone saw a higher highest of cases than average, but they besides happened earlier successful its winter, surging successful May and June alternatively than July and August.

For this reason, it is important that anyone successful the bluish hemisphere who is eligible gets vaccinated against flu arsenic soon arsenic they can, says the UKHSA. “You should publication successful arsenic soon arsenic possible,” Steve Russell, National Health Service manager for vaccinations and screening, said successful a statement.

Covid-19 has besides not gone away. The latest figures from hospitals and the Office for National Statistics amusement that cases are starting to emergence again successful the UK.

“This wintertime could beryllium the archetypal clip we spot the effects of the alleged ‘twindemic’ with some covid and flu successful afloat circulation,” said Russell.

The bully quality is that the emergence successful covid-19 is not being caused by a radically antithetic coronavirus variant, but by respective caller subvariants of omicron – and the bivalent vaccine connected connection successful galore countries contains an omicron component. In the UK, everyone offered a booster should beryllium offered the bivalent version, barring proviso disruptions.

The duplicate menace makes it each the much important that eligible groups instrumentality up their offers of covid-19 boosters and flu vaccines, says Simon Williams astatine Swansea University, the UK.

“Public wellness campaigns request to supply wide and beardown messages astir the risks of flu arsenic good arsenic covid to those who are susceptible arsenic good arsenic to the wellness strategy – akin to the ‘Protect the NHS’ run which worked truthful good earlier with covid,” says Williams.