Yevgeny Prigozhin: What could be next for Russia's mutinous mercenary chief

Once a adjacent state and caterer to Russian President Vladimir Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin present finds himself exiled to Belarus aft starring his backstage mercenary radical successful an equipped mutiny against the Russian military.

Within 24 hours of a Wagner Group rebellion successful which mercenaries changeable down Russian combatant jets and took implicit the confederate metropolis of Rostov-on-Don, Prigozhin halted the militia's march connected Moscow successful a woody that allowed him to fly the country.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko confirmed precocious connected Tuesday that Prigozhin had arrived successful Belarus and said different Wagner mercenaries had been offered accommodation astatine an abandoned naval basal if they privation to articulation him.

Some analysts characterized past weekend's unprecedented uprising arsenic the astir damaging infinitesimal successful Putin's 23 years successful powerfulness and suggest this volition not beryllium the past of Prigozhin and the Wagner Group, which includes thousands of erstwhile convicts recruited from Russian jails.

Despite the evident amnesty granted successful speech for halting the offensive, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told CNBC connected Monday that Prigozhin is simply a "dead antheral walking."

In the lack of further details connected the woody struck betwixt Prigozhin and the Kremlin, analysts are broadly uncertain arsenic to what the aboriginal holds for the Wagner Group and its leader.

The Russian information work has said it volition not prosecute Wagner Group — but, successful a televised address, Putin said that the organizers of the insurrection would beryllium "brought to justice," without mentioning Prigozhin by name.

Atlantic Council CEO Fred Kempe told CNBC's "The Exchange" that this would not beryllium a "one-act play" for either the Russian president oregon his erstwhile friend.

"Will Prigozhin stay live successful Belarus? Where volition helium go, volition helium proceed to bid the Wagner troops, which, by the way, are filthy affluent and making wealth disconnected golden mines and different things crossed Africa and besides successful Syria, and who volition they instrumentality their orders from? Will they instrumentality their orders from Putin, oregon volition they instrumentality them from Prigozhin?" Kempe mused, adding that the unknowns astatine this signifier are the astir important facet of Prigozhin's banishment.

The play events marked the culmination of a long-running feud betwixt Prigozhin and the Russian equipped forces. Wagner's beingness successful Ukraine was integral to the Russian warfare effort, but its person became progressively vocal successful caller months astir perceived incompetence among the Kremlin's subject apical brass, blaming generals for important losses sustained by the mercenary group.

Christopher Granville, managing manager of EMEA and planetary authorities probe astatine TS Lombard, said Prigozhin's assorted diatribes connected the Telegram messaging app implicit the past month, which challenged the full premise for the warfare arsenic laid retired by Putin, whitethorn person "planted a effect that volition germinate successful Russian nine turning against the war."

"To the grade that Prigozhin has indicated what helium himself would bash if helium was successful complaint (something which this weekend's events amusement to beryllium his goal), his vague and contradictory statements boil down to saying that present that this mistaken warfare is happening, Russia indispensable afloat mobilize nether caller enactment to combat it to a palmy conclusion," Granville said successful a play note.

"This stance puts Prigozhin astatine the hard nationalist extremity of the home governmental spectrum. But his critique of the warfare volition person struck a chord with the anti-war number successful Russian nine arsenic good arsenic with the bulk halfway of nine that is apathetically/passively loyal to the Putin strategy contempt varying degrees of disquiet astir the war."

The grade to which Prigozhin's hardline disapproval of the Russian warfare effort resonated volition beryllium an ongoing interest for Putin, and immoderate analysts judge this has cleared the mode for different effort to prehend power for himself, oregon for different warlords to capable the void.

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul told CNBC earlier this week that the hazard of the Kremlin being perceived arsenic anemic tin substance skepticism that Prigozhin's quiescent status successful Belarus volition play retired arsenic stated.

"I'm not definite Putin tin spend to let this guy, who's go precise fashionable each of a sudden, to beryllium successful Belarus and conscionable stay quiet. I fishy that determination is thing much that volition beryllium done with Mr Prigozhin," helium said.

This sentiment was echoed by British consultancy Teneo, who suggested that, contempt the alleged information guarantees offered to Prigozhin, Putin "might punish him successful a highly disposable mode to show that specified challenges to his regularisation volition not beryllium tolerated."

"Looking further ahead, the chaotic crook of events successful the past fewer days offered a glimpse into 1 imaginable script aft Putin's eventual departure from power," said Andrius Tursa, Central and Eastern Europe advisor astatine Teneo.

"A fierce rivalry for powerfulness among influential involvement groups, galore backed by (private) military/armed power, mightiness trigger a protracted play of governmental and societal instability with unpredictable outcomes."

Tursa besides noted that immoderate imaginable successors to Putin, including Prigozhin, clasp "extremely nationalist and hostile views toward the West."

"While home instability could extremity the alleged peculiar subject cognition [in Ukraine], immoderate sustained betterment to the country's concern situation would beryllium unlikely."