China doesn't really care who wins the war in Ukraine — it just wants to win the peace, analysts say

China has been anxious to presumption itself arsenic a bid broker to extremity the warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine since the penetration began, offering to mediate betwixt the countries soon aft Russian troops pushed implicit the border.

But Beijing has remained conspicuously adjacent to Russia arsenic the warfare has progressed, refusing to condemn oregon knock the ongoing equipped aggression against Ukraine. It's ideologically aligned with Moscow successful an anti-Western stance, with some professing their privation to spot a much "multipolar world."

And contempt a fig of calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and adjacent a sojourn to Moscow successful March, Chinese President Xi Jinping lone called his Ukrainian counterpart for the archetypal clip successful caller weeks.

During the call, Xi said helium would nonstop peculiar representatives to Ukraine and clasp talks with each parties connected reaching a cease-fire and a peaceful solution to what Beijing describes arsenic a "crisis."

Attempts to broker a bid woody measurement up a cogwheel this week with China's peculiar typical connected Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, set to sojourn Ukraine, Russia and respective different European countries for talks "on a governmental colony of the Ukraine crisis," China's overseas ministry said Friday.

There's small uncertainty that China wants the warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine to end, and soon. Beijing is wide believed to comprehend the war's unpredictable nature, chartless endpoint and the planetary economical instability caused by the struggle arsenic precise undesirable side-effects.

But arsenic it attempts to presumption itself arsenic a honorable bid broker that could bring astir an extremity to 1 of the astir bloodiest conflicts successful Europe for decades — and 1 that has pitched Russia (and indeed, China, astatine times) against the wider West — determination are question marks implicit China's perceived neutrality, diplomatic skills and, ultimately, its endgame arsenic a mediator.

Political analysts and China watchers enactment that, ultimately, Beijing doesn't truly attraction who "wins" the warfare — oregon what signifier a bid woody takes. What matters to Beijing, they say, is that it becomes the planetary spouse that brings Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating array and brokers an extremity the war.

"China is much focused connected winning the bid than connected who wins the warfare betwixt Russia and Ukraine," Ryan Hass, a China adept astatine the Brookings Institution and antecedently a elder Asia manager successful the Obama administration's National Security Council, told CNBC.

"Beijing would similar to person a dependable successful determining the contours of immoderate aboriginal European information architecture. Beijing besides would similar to beryllium seen arsenic captious to Ukraine's reconstruction and arsenic a cardinal histrion successful Europe's broader betterment from the conflict."

China is keen to physique connected caller successes successful planetary diplomacy, peculiarly the mediation betwixt Iran and Saudi Arabia that led the determination rivals to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies successful each other's countries.

Another effort by China astatine a circular of planetary diplomacy betwixt Russia and Ukraine is not without self-interest, analysts note.

"Of course, China is not stepping into this diplomatic foray retired of altruistic concerns," Cheng Chen, prof of governmental subject astatine the University astatine Albany, State University of New York, told CNBC Wednesday.

"As China progressively positions itself arsenic a superpower, it has each inducement to showcase its diplomatic spot arsenic a planetary mediator, particularly pursuing its caller occurrence successful mediating betwixt Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, China could further hindrance Russia to its broadside if it manages to broker a woody that saves Russia's face," she added.

Another blessed biproduct of China's involution would beryllium that it could entreaty to the Global South, a word mostly utilized to place processing countries successful Latin America, Africa, Asia and Oceania, "which has mostly not taken a broadside successful the conflict, arsenic good arsenic immoderate European powers that are unwilling to spot a protracted warfare festering successful Europe," Chen said. 

"To summation enactment from these countries, China wants to burnish its representation arsenic a peacemaker arsenic opposed to the U.S.' attack of 'adding substance to the fire'." 

China's bid for bid broker is not a archetypal successful the war; Turkey has besides positioned itself arsenic a mediator betwixt the warring sides, helping to broker a captious atom export woody and attempting aboriginal successful the warfare to clasp talks.

These broke down, however, with some sides having territorial "red lines" — fundamentally the giving up of mislaid (or gained) territory — that they could not cross.

Whether China has the diplomatic skills needed to bring some Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating array is uncertain. China's enactment of Russia won't person gone unnoticed successful Kyiv, with analysts saying this damages the cognition of Beijing arsenic an "honest broker" from the start.

"There is simply a immense asymmetry betwixt China-Russia and China-Ukraine relations," Alicja Bachulska, argumentation chap astatine the European Council connected Foreign Relations, told CNBC Tuesday.

"It took 14 months for Xi Jinping to person a telephone telephone with Zelenskyy, portion astatine the aforesaid clip China's apical enactment had implicit 20 high-level interactions with Russian leadership," she noted.

"China hasn't recognized the aggressor — Russia — and keeps connected blaming the U.S. and NATO for the war. Any benignant of meaningful 'help' connected China's broadside would necessitate Beijing to admit Ukraine's position connected this warfare and Ukrainian agency, and this is highly improbable fixed China's strategical interests successful this warfare – namely to weaken the U.S.-led planetary strategy and discredit wide democracies much broadly."

CNBC contacted China's overseas ministry for remark and is yet to person a response.

While China's attack to the warring parties has been imbalanced, its evident closeness to Moscow tin beryllium leveraged to payment some sides, analysts note.

The warfare afforded China "an accidental successful planetary diplomacy," Ian Bremmer, laminitis and president of the Eurasia Group, said successful emailed comments, noting that "Xi has much leverage implicit Putin than anyone else."

The University of Albany's Chen agreed that portion China's perceived deficiency of neutrality could beryllium a weakness, it could really beryllium its trump card.

"China is wide perceived arsenic being excessively affable to Russia to beryllium genuinely 'neutral' erstwhile it comes to perchance mediating the conflict. However, precisely due to the fact that China is 1 of Russia's fewer remaining planetary partners and has provided Russia with captious diplomatic and economical enactment since the invasion, it has the quality to bring Russia to the negotiating array and power Russia's presumption successful ending the conflict," Chen said.

No-one is underestimating the challenges immoderate would-be bid broker has earlier them.

Fifteen months of warfare person hardened Ukraine and shown that it won't rotation implicit to Russia, and for President Vladimir Putin successful Moscow, the stakes are excessively precocious for him to concede territorial gains, peculiarly erstwhile it comes to areas wherever Russia is much ensconced similar Crimea, which it annexed successful 2014.

China has already projected a "peace plan" for Ukraine but it lacks substance and factual steps toward a cease-fire and settlement.

Ukraine says that it volition not settee for thing little than the implicit withdrawal of each Russian forces from occupied territory and the reinstatement of its territorial integrity, including Crimea and 4 different regions Russia declared it had annexed past year, though it inactive doesn't afloat inhabit immoderate of them.

Ukraine volition apt privation to spot however its existent counteroffensive proceeds earlier taking China up connected immoderate connection to broker a bid deal, wary that immoderate statement could impact conceding territory to Russia.

Ukrainian analysts are surely skeptical that China can, oregon will, assistance Ukraine.

"They volition suggest immoderate ceasefire oregon bid statement woody with Russian conditions and, of course, this is not preferable for us," Oleksandr Musiyenko, a subject adept and caput of the Centre for Military and Legal Studies successful Kyiv, told CNBC.

Ukraine could lone judge a bid statement that respected the country's territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence, helium added, and earlier immoderate woody could beryllium reached Ukraine's territories would person to beryllium de-occupied by Russian forces.

Musiyenko said helium didn't expect that "Chinese bid agreements and draught bid agreements volition mean thing bully for america due to the fact that they're looking connected Ukraine from a Russian constituent of view."

"They are not nonsubjective successful this case," helium added.