Is Ukraine's counteroffensive failing? Defense experts say the risks facing Kyiv are growing

Ukraine's counteroffensive has been much sluggish than galore expected and subject analysts pass that the model of accidental for breaking done Russian defenses — and making territorial gains — could adjacent soon.

Kyiv's counteroffensive was launched successful June aft months of preparation, but its advancement has disappointed immoderate onlookers who hoped for a faster regaining of Russian-occupied territory successful the southbound and eastbound of the country.

While Ukraine planned its counteroffensive implicit the wintertime — and waited for much subject hardware from its planetary allies — Russian forces were heavy fortifying their positions on a 900-kilometer (559-mile) beforehand enactment stretching from the Kharkiv-Luhansk borderline successful the northeast of Ukraine, toward Kherson successful the southwest.

Military analysts enactment that Ukraine present faces successive lines of Russian defenses that are, successful immoderate cases, 30 kilometers heavy and consisting of minefields, anti-tank obstacles and extended networks of trenches and bunkers that are covered by Russian drones, artillery and helicopters.

For Michael Clarke, a defence expert and erstwhile director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) deliberation tank, there's a hazard that the archetypal signifier of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia's defenses, takes excessively long.

"It was ever intended to beryllium a two-stage offensive, with a benignant of probing archetypal signifier to effort to place weaknesses successful the Russian frontline, followed by a 2nd signifier wherever they enactment their large forces into it. And we're inactive connected the archetypal signifier which has lasted longer than they expected," helium told CNBC Wednesday.

"If this archetypal signifier lasts excessively long, they permission themselves insufficient clip earlier the upwind changes, earlier the 2nd signifier starts," helium said. Although helium believed it to beryllium an improbable scenario, Clarke noted that clip pressures could punctual Ukraine to deploy subject units destined for usage successful the 2nd signifier of the counteroffensive sooner than planned — thing helium said Russia is hoping for.

"The information past is that they volition not beryllium capable to usage the bulk of their forces successful capable wide to marque a quality ... to make a existent punch erstwhile they determine to truly start," helium added. "I'm not pessimistic astir this violative but the risks that it whitethorn not enactment are expanding arsenic the days tick on."

One of the astir pressing clip constraints is the inevitable alteration of weather, with Ukraine's infamous muddy season successful the autumn acceptable to marque the violative acold much challenging and astatine times — with unpassable roads and fields — practically impossible.

Konrad Muzyka, a subject quality specializer and president of Rochan Consulting, said "the upwind has ever been the factor" for Kyiv.

"I deliberation that the Ukrainians expected the counteroffensive to stitchery capable momentum to let them to proceed to propulsion southbound astatine a overmuch faster rate. Unfortunately, it didn't happen," helium told CNBC Wednesday.

"I deliberation it's just to accidental that Ukrainians person up to 3 months present earlier they volition tally retired of artillery munitions and they volition tally retired of barrels for their guns, and 3 months until the terrain volition again go precise muddy."

The standard of the situation facing Ukraine became evident erstwhile aboriginal momentum successful the counteroffensive, which saw Ukraine reclaim a fistful of occupied villages successful the south, seemingly petered out.

But Kyiv says its forces are conducting counteroffensive actions successful astatine slightest 3 areas and are operating against a backdrop of accrued Russian violative operations. Ukraine's defence ministry claims that its forces person liberated astir 210 quadrate kilometers (81 quadrate miles) of occupied territory since June. Meanwhile, the attritional quality of the counteroffensive is becoming progressively apparent.

"Ukrainians thin to accidental that 'we captured a trench' oregon 'we moved 500 meters forward' and truthful connected and truthful distant but fundamentally what we are seeing is simply a precise hard-fought conflict connected the Ukrainian side," Muzyka said.

"This reminds maine of the battles we person seen since mid-last year, erstwhile 1 broadside is trying to propulsion the beforehand line, and the different broadside is precise good dug successful and is trying to forestall immoderate breakthroughs," helium added.

Muzyka said Ukraine's attacks connected Russian positions are ongoing and person been reasonably palmy truthful far, but immoderate advances are apt to beryllium slow. In addition, expectations of immoderate large breakthrough successful the counteroffensive were debased among Ukrainian soldiers helium had spoken to connected the ground.

"This volition person to beryllium a grinding attritional combat aft the adjacent 2 oregon 3 months," helium noted.

"The nonsubjective is to proceed to propulsion guardant and liberate trench by trench successful a dilatory manner. The usage of armored vehicles is precise constricted due to the fact that the density of Russian ATGMs [anti-tank guided rocket systems] and artillery is so, truthful high, that it's inactive risky to usage combined armored formations."

"The Ukrainians volition conscionable person to inch guardant and proceed to onslaught the Russian rear hoping that the Russian quality to prolong the forces successful the northbound volition beryllium sufficiently degraded to let for the accrued tempo of crushed attacks connected the Ukrainian side," Muzyka noted. "To what grade this volition beryllium successful, I don't know."

Ukraine is the archetypal to admit that its troops are operating successful what one defence authoritative described this week arsenic "extremely hard conditions." They person conceded that the counteroffensive is going much dilatory than expected and is not having the swift results of akin actions past year, which saw Kyiv's forces retake a swathe of Kharkiv successful northeast Ukraine and Kherson successful the south.

Yuriy Sak, an advisor to Ukraine's defence ministry, defended the military's advancement and repeated calls for combatant jets from its allies — the proviso of which continues to elude Kyiv.

"If you see that we are conducting these violative operations on the 900-kilometer agelong beforehand past you are perchance going to reason that this is going beauteous well," Sak told CNBC Wednesday.

"If you instrumentality into relationship the millions of mines that person been laid, the magnitude of the trenches and fortified defence lines and that we're doing this without the aerial power, and Russians proceed to person aerial supremacy, past the advancement is dependable and positive."

Ukraine's allies proceed to importune they volition enactment Ukraine for arsenic agelong arsenic it takes. Asked connected Monday whether helium considered the counteroffensive a nonaccomplishment truthful far, U.S. General Mark Milley, seat of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said "it is acold from a failure. I deliberation that it's mode excessively aboriginal to marque that benignant of call," Reuters reported.

"I deliberation there's a batch of warring near to spell and I'll enactment with what we said before: This is going to beryllium long. It's going beryllium hard. It's going to beryllium bloody."