China walks a tightrope, searching for a Ukraine peace deal that doesn’t defeat its ally Russia

China faces a "daunting" situation erstwhile it comes to attempting to broker a bid woody betwixt Ukraine and Russia, according to governmental analysts, with the state walking a diplomatic tightrope betwixt appearing neutral capable to summation Kyiv's spot and ensuring immoderate woody doesn't wounded its allies successful Moscow.

Beijing — which has sent representatives to Ukraine, Russia and respective European countries this week successful a bid to laic the groundwork for bid talks — has a peculiar vested involvement successful Moscow not looking similar it has been "defeated" successful immoderate colony arsenic this could backfire connected Beijing, analysts note.

"A full Russian decision does not service Chinese interest, particularly if it leads to [President Vladimir] Putin's demise," Bonnie Glaser, manager of the Asia Program astatine the German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the United States, told CNBC Tuesday.

"Russia is an progressively important spouse for [Chinese President] Xi Jinping. There is nary different state that tin assistance weaken U.S. enactment successful the satellite and revise the planetary order," she added.

China is stepping up efforts to bring Russia and Ukraine to the negotiating array with China's peculiar typical connected Eurasian affairs, Li Hui, visiting Europe this week for talks "on a governmental colony of the Ukraine crisis," China's overseas ministry said.

Russia launched its unprovoked penetration of Ukraine successful February 2022 and after months of attritional warfare, the struggle is poised to participate a caller phase, with Western-backed Ukraine expected to motorboat a monolithic counter-offensive to instrumentality backmost occupied territory successful the eastbound and southbound of the country.

China is wide considered to person backed Russia during the war, refusing to condemn the penetration and committing to deepening its strategical practice with the country, although Moscow is seen by astir analysts arsenic the subservient, inferior spouse successful the relationship.

One of the main factors that binds China and Moscow is simply a shared and deeply-held antipathy and distrust of the West, with some captious of the U.S.' dominance successful planetary affairs.

Against this backdrop, Moscow and Beijing person remained conspicuously adjacent passim the warfare with Xi and Putin holding galore calls and a authorities sojourn successful March. In contrast, Xi lone called his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy for the archetypal clip successful April.

There's nary uncertainty that China wants the warfare to end, seeing it arsenic an unwelcome situation that is affecting the planetary economy. But it besides contains the imaginable for governmental information for China arsenic well, with a defeated Russia seen to beryllium precise susceptible to governmental instability, upset and adjacent authorities change.

As such, China's determination to broker bid betwixt Russia and Ukraine is not seen arsenic an altruistic 1 but motivated by self-interest. That involvement stretches to ensuring its neighbour and state Russia doesn't look similar it has been humiliated and "defeated" successful immoderate bid woody with Ukraine. By managing the dialog process, China tin spot that it doesn't, analysts note.

"There volition decidedly beryllium an important face-saving constituent to immoderate Chinese peace-brokering efforts," Etienne Soula, a probe expert with GMF's Alliance for Securing Democracy focusing connected China, told CNBC, adding that "Beijing volition apt effort to assistance Russia concede arsenic small arsenic imaginable portion convincing the Ukrainians and their Western supporters to hide the hatchet."

Crucially for China, a humiliated Russia would bespeak poorly connected its ain ambitions to situation the perceived hegemony of the West.

"China's communicative astir its ain emergence to the halfway of planetary governance is contingent upon the matching thought that Western democracies, and the United States successful particular, are declining irreversibly," Soula said.

"Having those countries decision 1 of the largest autocracies successful the world, a nuclear-armed Security Council member, via proxy, without adjacent having boots connected the ground, would beryllium a large setback for the communicative China tries to archer the satellite astir the future."

CNBC has contacted China's overseas ministry for a effect to the comments and is yet to person a reply.

China's latest foray into the arena of planetary diplomacy comes aft a caller occurrence successful brokering a woody betwixt Middle-Eastern nemeses Saudi Arabia and Iran successful which they agreed to resume diplomatic relations and reopen embassies successful each other's countries.

Replicating that accomplishment betwixt Ukraine and Russia volition beryllium overmuch harder, analysts say, noting that Beijing has a upland to ascent persuading some sides to scope an statement erstwhile there's specified atrocious humor betwixt them, and erstwhile truthful overmuch is astatine stake.

Ukraine has said immoderate colony to the warfare indispensable halfway connected Russian troops withdrawing from occupied areas and for its territorial sovereignty to beryllium restored, including the instrumentality of 4 regions Russia declared it had annexed past September, arsenic good arsenic Crimea, which was annexed successful 2014.

Russia, meanwhile, demands that Kyiv recognizes Russia's sovereignty implicit the annexed regions and accepts independency for pro-Russian separatist "republics" successful Luhansk and Donetsk successful eastbound Ukraine. Moscow besides wants to spot a "de-militarized" Ukraine, including guarantees it volition ne'er articulation NATO.

While determination whitethorn beryllium immoderate wiggle country for negotiations; Ukraine has said it could see information guarantees from Western allies alternatively of NATO membership, for example; some sides person small appetite for concessions, peculiarly territorial ones.

After all, Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial beingness depends connected the result of the war, portion Putin has arguably staked his full regime, and Russia's consciousness of self, connected defeating Ukraine and its Western backers, who helium claims privation to "destroy" Russia.

"China's caller occurrence successful mediating betwixt Iran and Saudi Arabia shows that it has the quality to navigate betwixt semipermanent enemies. But, mediating betwixt Ukraine and Russia volition beryllium a overmuch much daunting challenge," Cheng Chen, prof of governmental subject astatine the University astatine Albany, State University of New York, told CNBC.

"Since Xi specifically mentioned the value of sovereignty successful his telephone telephone with Zelenskyy, it is improbable China volition broadside with Russia demanding outright territorial concessions from Ukraine. Nevertheless, China volition effort hard to marque definite immoderate woody that materializes would not look humiliating to Russia successful immoderate evident way," she added.